Recent August 2026 data showed Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding steady at 1.9% year-over-year, with the broader core measure easing to 1.7%, both remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for multiple consecutive months amid energy subsidies and moderating food price gains. Trader consensus around a 2.0-2.4% outcome for the full-year 2026 reading reflects expectations that underlying inflation will gradually firm toward the target in the second half of the fiscal year, supported by wage pass-through, yen depreciation effects, AI-driven demand, and upward pressure from Middle East-related energy costs. The Bank of Japan's September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—its highest level since the mid-1990s—signals a shift toward preemptive tightening to mitigate overshoot risks, consistent with its outlook for underlying inflation stabilizing near 2% through 2027. Persistent external uncertainties, including oil price volatility and currency movements, introduce downside potential for a ≤1.9% print if subsidies or base effects extend further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.0-2.4% 66%
≤1.9% 27%
2.5-2.9% 1.8%
4.0%+ <1%
$65,806 Vol.
$65,806 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
≤1.9%
27%
2.0-2.4%
66%
2.5-2.9%
2%
3.0-3.4%
<1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
2.0-2.4% 66%
≤1.9% 27%
2.5-2.9% 1.8%
4.0%+ <1%
$65,806 Vol.
$65,806 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
≤1.9%
$18,019 Vol.
27%
2.0-2.4%
$29,241 Vol.
66%
2.5-2.9%
$11,679 Vol.
2%
3.0-3.4%
$2,774 Vol.
<1%
3.5-3.9%
$1,675 Vol.
<1%
4.0%+
$2,418 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent August 2026 data showed Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding steady at 1.9% year-over-year, with the broader core measure easing to 1.7%, both remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for multiple consecutive months amid energy subsidies and moderating food price gains. Trader consensus around a 2.0-2.4% outcome for the full-year 2026 reading reflects expectations that underlying inflation will gradually firm toward the target in the second half of the fiscal year, supported by wage pass-through, yen depreciation effects, AI-driven demand, and upward pressure from Middle East-related energy costs. The Bank of Japan's September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—its highest level since the mid-1990s—signals a shift toward preemptive tightening to mitigate overshoot risks, consistent with its outlook for underlying inflation stabilizing near 2% through 2027. Persistent external uncertainties, including oil price volatility and currency movements, introduce downside potential for a ≤1.9% print if subsidies or base effects extend further.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$65,806End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent August 2026 data showed Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding steady at 1.9% year-over-year, with the broader core measure easing to 1.7%, both remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for multiple consecutive months amid energy subsidies and moderating food price gains. Trader consensus around a 2.0-2.4% outcome for the full-year 2026 reading reflects expectations that underlying inflation will gradually firm toward the target in the second half of the fiscal year, supported by wage pass-through, yen depreciation effects, AI-driven demand, and upward pressure from Middle East-related energy costs. The Bank of Japan's September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—its highest level since the mid-1990s—signals a shift toward preemptive tightening to mitigate overshoot risks, consistent with its outlook for underlying inflation stabilizing near 2% through 2027. Persistent external uncertainties, including oil price volatility and currency movements, introduce downside potential for a ≤1.9% print if subsidies or base effects extend further.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$65,806End Date
Apr 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 data showed Japan's core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) holding steady at 1.9% year-over-year, with the broader core measure easing to 1.7%, both remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target for multiple consecutive months amid energy subsidies and moderating food price gains. Trader consensus around a 2.0-2.4% outcome for the full-year 2026 reading reflects expectations that underlying inflation will gradually firm toward the target in the second half of the fiscal year, supported by wage pass-through, yen depreciation effects, AI-driven demand, and upward pressure from Middle East-related energy costs. The Bank of Japan's September 18 rate hike to 1.25%—its highest level since the mid-1990s—signals a shift toward preemptive tightening to mitigate overshoot risks, consistent with its outlook for underlying inflation stabilizing near 2% through 2027. Persistent external uncertainties, including oil price volatility and currency movements, introduce downside potential for a ≤1.9% print if subsidies or base effects extend further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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