Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (QoQ annualized) market prices modest outcomes most heavily, with the 0.0–0.8% band leading at 29.9% amid forecasts clustered near zero. Q2 final GDP rose 0.4% QoQ and 1.4% annualized—revised higher on government spending and net exports—but private consumption stalled as elevated energy and import costs from Middle East tensions eroded real incomes. Forecasters including JCER (0.25%) and Daiichi Life (+0.7%) anticipate further moderation in Q3 as the durable-goods boost fades, while the Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25% and tight labor market (unemployment near 2.4–2.5%) introduce mixed signals. Yen volatility and persistent core CPI pressures around 1.5–2% add uncertainty, keeping the distribution tightly contested around flat-to-low positive growth ahead of the November 15 preliminary release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.0%–0.8% 29.9%
-0.8%–0.0% 22%
0.8%–1.6% 16%
<-2.4% 7.4%
$27,980 Vol.
$27,980 Vol.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
7%
-2.4%– -1.6%
4%
-1.6%– -0.8%
11%
-0.8%–0.0%
22%
0.0%–0.8%
30%
0.8%–1.6%
16%
1.6%–2.4%
6%
2.4%–3.2%
4%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.0%–0.8% 29.9%
-0.8%–0.0% 22%
0.8%–1.6% 16%
<-2.4% 7.4%
$27,980 Vol.
$27,980 Vol.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
$604 Vol.
7%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,778 Vol.
4%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$335 Vol.
11%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,829 Vol.
22%
0.0%–0.8%
$11,689 Vol.
30%
0.8%–1.6%
$2,836 Vol.
16%
1.6%–2.4%
$679 Vol.
6%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,422 Vol.
4%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,244 Vol.
3%
4.0%+
$561 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (QoQ annualized) market prices modest outcomes most heavily, with the 0.0–0.8% band leading at 29.9% amid forecasts clustered near zero. Q2 final GDP rose 0.4% QoQ and 1.4% annualized—revised higher on government spending and net exports—but private consumption stalled as elevated energy and import costs from Middle East tensions eroded real incomes. Forecasters including JCER (0.25%) and Daiichi Life (+0.7%) anticipate further moderation in Q3 as the durable-goods boost fades, while the Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25% and tight labor market (unemployment near 2.4–2.5%) introduce mixed signals. Yen volatility and persistent core CPI pressures around 1.5–2% add uncertainty, keeping the distribution tightly contested around flat-to-low positive growth ahead of the November 15 preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$27,980End Date
Nov 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (QoQ annualized) market prices modest outcomes most heavily, with the 0.0–0.8% band leading at 29.9% amid forecasts clustered near zero. Q2 final GDP rose 0.4% QoQ and 1.4% annualized—revised higher on government spending and net exports—but private consumption stalled as elevated energy and import costs from Middle East tensions eroded real incomes. Forecasters including JCER (0.25%) and Daiichi Life (+0.7%) anticipate further moderation in Q3 as the durable-goods boost fades, while the Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25% and tight labor market (unemployment near 2.4–2.5%) introduce mixed signals. Yen volatility and persistent core CPI pressures around 1.5–2% add uncertainty, keeping the distribution tightly contested around flat-to-low positive growth ahead of the November 15 preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$27,980End Date
Nov 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (QoQ annualized) market prices modest outcomes most heavily, with the 0.0–0.8% band leading at 29.9% amid forecasts clustered near zero. Q2 final GDP rose 0.4% QoQ and 1.4% annualized—revised higher on government spending and net exports—but private consumption stalled as elevated energy and import costs from Middle East tensions eroded real incomes. Forecasters including JCER (0.25%) and Daiichi Life (+0.7%) anticipate further moderation in Q3 as the durable-goods boost fades, while the Bank of Japan’s September 18 rate hike to 1.25% and tight labor market (unemployment near 2.4–2.5%) introduce mixed signals. Yen volatility and persistent core CPI pressures around 1.5–2% add uncertainty, keeping the distribution tightly contested around flat-to-low positive growth ahead of the November 15 preliminary release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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