Forecast models for early October in Guangzhou show typical nocturnal cooling under high humidity and frequent rain, with official guidance pointing to minimum temperatures near 23–25°C on October 3 amid patchy showers and light easterly flow. This transitional autumn regime creates tight uncertainty between moderate radiative cooling on clearer intervals and suppressed overnight drops under persistent cloud cover, keeping the 20°C-or-below and 30°C-or-higher outcomes nearly balanced in trader pricing. Historical analogs from similar setups indicate lows rarely dip below 21°C this early without a stronger northerly surge, while daytime peaks near 30–32°C limit upside extremes. Updated NHC or CMA guidance on steering patterns and any model consensus shifts ahead of the date will likely refine the narrow spread between 23–26°C scenarios.