**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 27°C minimum (88% implied probability) for Hong Kong on September 21, 2026, driven by official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecasts and supporting real-time observations.** HKO guidance for the day projects a daily temperature range of 27–31°C under light northeast winds, with partly cloudy skies, brief showers, and isolated thunderstorms possible. This range centers the overnight minimum near 27°C, consistent with regional model outputs and climatological norms for late September under a weak monsoon influence and absent strong cold surges or tropical systems. Current station readings early on the 21st hover around 27–28°C with high humidity (70–90%), showing limited overnight cooling. Historical September minima average near 24°C, but the prevailing warm pattern—marked by above-normal sea-surface temperatures near 27°C—has kept recent nights elevated. No major forecast revisions or disruptive weather developments have emerged to shift probabilities toward 26°C or lower, leaving 27°C as the clear market consensus backed by authoritative meteorological data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 21?
27°C 88%
26°C 7%
25°C 5%
22°C or below 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
5%
26°C
7%
27°C
88%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 88%
26°C 7%
25°C 5%
22°C or below 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
22°C or below
$37 Vol.
2%
23°C
$424 Vol.
1%
24°C
$234 Vol.
2%
25°C
$469 Vol.
5%
26°C
$914 Vol.
7%
27°C
$2,871 Vol.
88%
28°C
$3,357 Vol.
1%
29°C
$31 Vol.
1%
30°C
$329 Vol.
1%
31°C
$333 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$4 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 27°C minimum (88% implied probability) for Hong Kong on September 21, 2026, driven by official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecasts and supporting real-time observations.**
HKO guidance for the day projects a daily temperature range of 27–31°C under light northeast winds, with partly cloudy skies, brief showers, and isolated thunderstorms possible. This range centers the overnight minimum near 27°C, consistent with regional model outputs and climatological norms for late September under a weak monsoon influence and absent strong cold surges or tropical systems.
Current station readings early on the 21st hover around 27–28°C with high humidity (70–90%), showing limited overnight cooling. Historical September minima average near 24°C, but the prevailing warm pattern—marked by above-normal sea-surface temperatures near 27°C—has kept recent nights elevated.
No major forecast revisions or disruptive weather developments have emerged to shift probabilities toward 26°C or lower, leaving 27°C as the clear market consensus backed by authoritative meteorological data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$8,954End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 27°C minimum (88% implied probability) for Hong Kong on September 21, 2026, driven by official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecasts and supporting real-time observations.**
HKO guidance for the day projects a daily temperature range of 27–31°C under light northeast winds, with partly cloudy skies, brief showers, and isolated thunderstorms possible. This range centers the overnight minimum near 27°C, consistent with regional model outputs and climatological norms for late September under a weak monsoon influence and absent strong cold surges or tropical systems.
Current station readings early on the 21st hover around 27–28°C with high humidity (70–90%), showing limited overnight cooling. Historical September minima average near 24°C, but the prevailing warm pattern—marked by above-normal sea-surface temperatures near 27°C—has kept recent nights elevated.
No major forecast revisions or disruptive weather developments have emerged to shift probabilities toward 26°C or lower, leaving 27°C as the clear market consensus backed by authoritative meteorological data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,954End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 27°C minimum (88% implied probability) for Hong Kong on September 21, 2026, driven by official Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) forecasts and supporting real-time observations.** HKO guidance for the day projects a daily temperature range of 27–31°C under light northeast winds, with partly cloudy skies, brief showers, and isolated thunderstorms possible. This range centers the overnight minimum near 27°C, consistent with regional model outputs and climatological norms for late September under a weak monsoon influence and absent strong cold surges or tropical systems. Current station readings early on the 21st hover around 27–28°C with high humidity (70–90%), showing limited overnight cooling. Historical September minima average near 24°C, but the prevailing warm pattern—marked by above-normal sea-surface temperatures near 27°C—has kept recent nights elevated. No major forecast revisions or disruptive weather developments have emerged to shift probabilities toward 26°C or lower, leaving 27°C as the clear market consensus backed by authoritative meteorological data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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