Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for downtown Los Angeles points to an overnight low on September 10 in the low-to-mid 70s, driven by persistent high pressure and elevated dew points from lingering moisture tied to former Hurricane Marie. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 64°F. With the market’s top two bins (76–77°F and 74–75°F) capturing roughly three-quarters of implied probability, traders are pricing in the warmest overnight readings of the recent heat wave; a faster marine layer intrusion or greater onshore flow could still pull readings into the upper 60s before official verification at the downtown station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 10?
63°F or below 51%
82°F or higher 51%
74-75°F 49%
76-77°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
63°F or below
51%
64-65°F
9%
66-67°F
10%
68-69°F
10%
70-71°F
38%
72-73°F
13%
74-75°F
34%
76-77°F
45%
78-79°F
12%
80-81°F
11%
82°F or higher
51%
63°F or below 51%
82°F or higher 51%
74-75°F 49%
76-77°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
63°F or below
$0 Vol.
51%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
9%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
10%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
10%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
38%
72-73°F
$13 Vol.
13%
74-75°F
$59 Vol.
34%
76-77°F
$121 Vol.
45%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
12%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
11%
82°F or higher
$0 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for downtown Los Angeles points to an overnight low on September 10 in the low-to-mid 70s, driven by persistent high pressure and elevated dew points from lingering moisture tied to former Hurricane Marie. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 64°F. With the market’s top two bins (76–77°F and 74–75°F) capturing roughly three-quarters of implied probability, traders are pricing in the warmest overnight readings of the recent heat wave; a faster marine layer intrusion or greater onshore flow could still pull readings into the upper 60s before official verification at the downtown station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$193End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for downtown Los Angeles points to an overnight low on September 10 in the low-to-mid 70s, driven by persistent high pressure and elevated dew points from lingering moisture tied to former Hurricane Marie. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 64°F. With the market’s top two bins (76–77°F and 74–75°F) capturing roughly three-quarters of implied probability, traders are pricing in the warmest overnight readings of the recent heat wave; a faster marine layer intrusion or greater onshore flow could still pull readings into the upper 60s before official verification at the downtown station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$193End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for downtown Los Angeles points to an overnight low on September 10 in the low-to-mid 70s, driven by persistent high pressure and elevated dew points from lingering moisture tied to former Hurricane Marie. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 64°F. With the market’s top two bins (76–77°F and 74–75°F) capturing roughly three-quarters of implied probability, traders are pricing in the warmest overnight readings of the recent heat wave; a faster marine layer intrusion or greater onshore flow could still pull readings into the upper 60s before official verification at the downtown station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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