**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources (including WeatherBug, Yr.no, and regional Chinese weather services) indicate a daily minimum temperature in Qingdao on August 25 around 26–27°C (approximately 79–81°F), under partly cloudy to clearing conditions with light southerly winds.** This stems from the moderating influence of the Yellow Sea, which prevents rapid nighttime cooling in late summer, combined with recent patterns of scattered rain and cloud cover that have kept overnight lows elevated (typically in the mid-20s°C). Historical August averages for Qingdao show typical minima near 22°C, but the specific 2026 setup features persistent warm, humid air masses with dew points near 24–26°C, limiting radiative cooling. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48% implied probability on 22°C or below, likely incorporates forecast uncertainty and model spread in the 48–72 hours before resolution, as well as the possibility of localized marine-layer effects or brief clearing that could allow slightly greater cooling. However, the clustering of probabilities around 25–28°C outcomes aligns closely with the consensus range from official guidance. Key upcoming inputs include the next model runs and any updates from regional meteorological centers, which could shift sentiment if a stronger high-pressure system or wind shift develops. Resolution will hinge on verified observational data for the precise daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Qingdao on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on August 25?
28°C 48%
32°C or higher 48%
22°C or below 48%
30°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
22°C or below
48%
23°C
24%
24°C
24%
25°C
27%
26°C
27%
27°C
27%
28°C
48%
29°C
2%
30°C
46%
31°C
46%
32°C or higher
48%
28°C 48%
32°C or higher 48%
22°C or below 48%
30°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
48%
23°C
$0 Vol.
24%
24°C
$0 Vol.
24%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$5 Vol.
48%
29°C
$5 Vol.
2%
30°C
$5 Vol.
46%
31°C
$5 Vol.
46%
32°C or higher
$5 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources (including WeatherBug, Yr.no, and regional Chinese weather services) indicate a daily minimum temperature in Qingdao on August 25 around 26–27°C (approximately 79–81°F), under partly cloudy to clearing conditions with light southerly winds.** This stems from the moderating influence of the Yellow Sea, which prevents rapid nighttime cooling in late summer, combined with recent patterns of scattered rain and cloud cover that have kept overnight lows elevated (typically in the mid-20s°C). Historical August averages for Qingdao show typical minima near 22°C, but the specific 2026 setup features persistent warm, humid air masses with dew points near 24–26°C, limiting radiative cooling.
Trader consensus, reflected in the 48% implied probability on 22°C or below, likely incorporates forecast uncertainty and model spread in the 48–72 hours before resolution, as well as the possibility of localized marine-layer effects or brief clearing that could allow slightly greater cooling. However, the clustering of probabilities around 25–28°C outcomes aligns closely with the consensus range from official guidance. Key upcoming inputs include the next model runs and any updates from regional meteorological centers, which could shift sentiment if a stronger high-pressure system or wind shift develops. Resolution will hinge on verified observational data for the precise daily minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources (including WeatherBug, Yr.no, and regional Chinese weather services) indicate a daily minimum temperature in Qingdao on August 25 around 26–27°C (approximately 79–81°F), under partly cloudy to clearing conditions with light southerly winds.** This stems from the moderating influence of the Yellow Sea, which prevents rapid nighttime cooling in late summer, combined with recent patterns of scattered rain and cloud cover that have kept overnight lows elevated (typically in the mid-20s°C). Historical August averages for Qingdao show typical minima near 22°C, but the specific 2026 setup features persistent warm, humid air masses with dew points near 24–26°C, limiting radiative cooling.
Trader consensus, reflected in the 48% implied probability on 22°C or below, likely incorporates forecast uncertainty and model spread in the 48–72 hours before resolution, as well as the possibility of localized marine-layer effects or brief clearing that could allow slightly greater cooling. However, the clustering of probabilities around 25–28°C outcomes aligns closely with the consensus range from official guidance. Key upcoming inputs include the next model runs and any updates from regional meteorological centers, which could shift sentiment if a stronger high-pressure system or wind shift develops. Resolution will hinge on verified observational data for the precise daily minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources (including WeatherBug, Yr.no, and regional Chinese weather services) indicate a daily minimum temperature in Qingdao on August 25 around 26–27°C (approximately 79–81°F), under partly cloudy to clearing conditions with light southerly winds.** This stems from the moderating influence of the Yellow Sea, which prevents rapid nighttime cooling in late summer, combined with recent patterns of scattered rain and cloud cover that have kept overnight lows elevated (typically in the mid-20s°C). Historical August averages for Qingdao show typical minima near 22°C, but the specific 2026 setup features persistent warm, humid air masses with dew points near 24–26°C, limiting radiative cooling. Trader consensus, reflected in the 48% implied probability on 22°C or below, likely incorporates forecast uncertainty and model spread in the 48–72 hours before resolution, as well as the possibility of localized marine-layer effects or brief clearing that could allow slightly greater cooling. However, the clustering of probabilities around 25–28°C outcomes aligns closely with the consensus range from official guidance. Key upcoming inputs include the next model runs and any updates from regional meteorological centers, which could shift sentiment if a stronger high-pressure system or wind shift develops. Resolution will hinge on verified observational data for the precise daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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