Recent numerical weather prediction model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated through September 9, points to stable overnight conditions in Shanghai with partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and minimal radiative cooling, positioning the lowest temperature on September 11 near 23–24°C. Current observations show daytime highs around 28°C and overnight minima in the low 20s, consistent with typical mid-September climatology absent strong frontal passages or typhoon influences. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, supporting the market's leading implied probabilities for 23°C at 46% and 24°C at 30.5%, while lower outcomes like 22°C reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. Updated model guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 11?
23°C 46%
24°C 31%
19°C or below 27%
25°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
19°C or below
27%
20°C
18%
21°C
21%
22°C
15%
23°C
46%
24°C
31%
25°C
24%
26°C
18%
27°C
14%
28°C
14%
29°C or higher
6%
23°C 46%
24°C 31%
19°C or below 27%
25°C 24%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
18%
21°C
$0 Vol.
21%
22°C
$0 Vol.
15%
23°C
$403 Vol.
46%
24°C
$450 Vol.
31%
25°C
$0 Vol.
24%
26°C
$0 Vol.
18%
27°C
$0 Vol.
14%
28°C
$0 Vol.
14%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated through September 9, points to stable overnight conditions in Shanghai with partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and minimal radiative cooling, positioning the lowest temperature on September 11 near 23–24°C. Current observations show daytime highs around 28°C and overnight minima in the low 20s, consistent with typical mid-September climatology absent strong frontal passages or typhoon influences. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, supporting the market's leading implied probabilities for 23°C at 46% and 24°C at 30.5%, while lower outcomes like 22°C reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. Updated model guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these trader assessments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$853End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated through September 9, points to stable overnight conditions in Shanghai with partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and minimal radiative cooling, positioning the lowest temperature on September 11 near 23–24°C. Current observations show daytime highs around 28°C and overnight minima in the low 20s, consistent with typical mid-September climatology absent strong frontal passages or typhoon influences. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, supporting the market's leading implied probabilities for 23°C at 46% and 24°C at 30.5%, while lower outcomes like 22°C reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. Updated model guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these trader assessments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$853End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction model consensus, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated through September 9, points to stable overnight conditions in Shanghai with partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and minimal radiative cooling, positioning the lowest temperature on September 11 near 23–24°C. Current observations show daytime highs around 28°C and overnight minima in the low 20s, consistent with typical mid-September climatology absent strong frontal passages or typhoon influences. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, supporting the market's leading implied probabilities for 23°C at 46% and 24°C at 30.5%, while lower outcomes like 22°C reflect residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. Updated model guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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