Recent short-range forecast models show substantial uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling for Shenzhen on October 3, producing a near-even split between trader-implied odds for a lowest temperature of 22°C or below versus 32°C or higher. Persistent easterly flow, high humidity near 90 percent, and scattered showers limit clear-sky cooling while also suppressing daytime heating, keeping projected lows clustered around 24–26°C—close to the early-October climatological baseline of roughly 23°C. Model spread arises mainly from differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture overnight, with newer runs from regional and global ensembles still diverging on whether a brief dry slot allows greater temperature drop. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration ahead of the date will likely tighten resolution criteria around these thresholds.