Recent forecast model runs highlight a shift to southeasterly winds and an approaching frontal system as the main driver of uncertainty in Wellington’s overnight low for September 7. Official guidance from MetService-aligned sources projects a minimum near 4°C amid widespread rain and gusty conditions, consistent with cooler maritime air advection, while some ensemble members keep readings closer to 7–9°C under lingering northwesterlies. This divergence explains the near-even market-implied odds between sub-4°C and 14°C+ outcomes. Historical September minima in Wellington average around 8–9°C, with cold outbreaks tied to strong southerlies occurring several times per spring; traders are weighing the latest model consensus against typical spring variability ahead of the next official update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 7?
4°C or below 69%
14°C or higher 69%
6°C 49%
10°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
4°C or below
69%
5°C
24%
6°C
49%
7°C
25%
8°C
26%
9°C
26%
10°C
49%
11°C
8%
12°C
2%
13°C
8%
14°C or higher
69%
4°C or below 69%
14°C or higher 69%
6°C 49%
10°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
5°C
$0 Vol.
24%
6°C
$0 Vol.
49%
7°C
$0 Vol.
25%
8°C
$0 Vol.
26%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
8%
12°C
$0 Vol.
2%
13°C
$0 Vol.
8%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs highlight a shift to southeasterly winds and an approaching frontal system as the main driver of uncertainty in Wellington’s overnight low for September 7. Official guidance from MetService-aligned sources projects a minimum near 4°C amid widespread rain and gusty conditions, consistent with cooler maritime air advection, while some ensemble members keep readings closer to 7–9°C under lingering northwesterlies. This divergence explains the near-even market-implied odds between sub-4°C and 14°C+ outcomes. Historical September minima in Wellington average around 8–9°C, with cold outbreaks tied to strong southerlies occurring several times per spring; traders are weighing the latest model consensus against typical spring variability ahead of the next official update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs highlight a shift to southeasterly winds and an approaching frontal system as the main driver of uncertainty in Wellington’s overnight low for September 7. Official guidance from MetService-aligned sources projects a minimum near 4°C amid widespread rain and gusty conditions, consistent with cooler maritime air advection, while some ensemble members keep readings closer to 7–9°C under lingering northwesterlies. This divergence explains the near-even market-implied odds between sub-4°C and 14°C+ outcomes. Historical September minima in Wellington average around 8–9°C, with cold outbreaks tied to strong southerlies occurring several times per spring; traders are weighing the latest model consensus against typical spring variability ahead of the next official update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs highlight a shift to southeasterly winds and an approaching frontal system as the main driver of uncertainty in Wellington’s overnight low for September 7. Official guidance from MetService-aligned sources projects a minimum near 4°C amid widespread rain and gusty conditions, consistent with cooler maritime air advection, while some ensemble members keep readings closer to 7–9°C under lingering northwesterlies. This divergence explains the near-even market-implied odds between sub-4°C and 14°C+ outcomes. Historical September minima in Wellington average around 8–9°C, with cold outbreaks tied to strong southerlies occurring several times per spring; traders are weighing the latest model consensus against typical spring variability ahead of the next official update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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