Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Opus 5.5, paired with the explicit commitment to launch both Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 “in the coming weeks,” remains the dominant driver of market odds for a Claude Haiku 4.6+ release. Sonnet 5.5 followed quickly on September 28, reinforcing expectations of an imminent Haiku refresh to close the gap with the faster-moving Opus and Sonnet lines. Traders weigh Anthropic’s typical three-week cadence and the model’s long-static status since Haiku 4.5 in October 2025 against the vague timeline and historical variability in lightweight-tier timing. Competitive pressure to keep the cheapest, fastest tier viable for high-volume agents and cost-sensitive deployments adds urgency, while the absence of any confirmed October 1–3 launch keeps probabilities closely balanced between an early-October drop and a later or post-October outcome.