Incumbent Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the New York 19th congressional district race, backed by his 2024 victory by roughly two points in a seat that has trended slightly Democratic in recent cycles and carries Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic ratings from major forecasters. Riley secured his nomination without opposition, while Peter Oberacker prevailed decisively in the Republican primary but has since seen national GOP groups withdraw substantial ad reservations and remove him from targeted programs amid concerns over competitiveness. Riley maintains a sizable fundraising edge heading into the November general election. Potential shifts could stem from unexpected turnout surges, major campaign developments, or late shifts in voter priorities on issues such as utility costs and economic conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,706 Vol.
$21,706 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Josh Riley (D)
95%
Peter Oberacker (R)
5%
$21,706 Vol.
$21,706 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Josh Riley (D)
$10,728 Vol.
95%
Peter Oberacker (R)
$10,978 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the New York 19th congressional district race, backed by his 2024 victory by roughly two points in a seat that has trended slightly Democratic in recent cycles and carries Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic ratings from major forecasters. Riley secured his nomination without opposition, while Peter Oberacker prevailed decisively in the Republican primary but has since seen national GOP groups withdraw substantial ad reservations and remove him from targeted programs amid concerns over competitiveness. Riley maintains a sizable fundraising edge heading into the November general election. Potential shifts could stem from unexpected turnout surges, major campaign developments, or late shifts in voter priorities on issues such as utility costs and economic conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$21,706End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the New York 19th congressional district race, backed by his 2024 victory by roughly two points in a seat that has trended slightly Democratic in recent cycles and carries Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic ratings from major forecasters. Riley secured his nomination without opposition, while Peter Oberacker prevailed decisively in the Republican primary but has since seen national GOP groups withdraw substantial ad reservations and remove him from targeted programs amid concerns over competitiveness. Riley maintains a sizable fundraising edge heading into the November general election. Potential shifts could stem from unexpected turnout surges, major campaign developments, or late shifts in voter priorities on issues such as utility costs and economic conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,706End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the New York 19th congressional district race, backed by his 2024 victory by roughly two points in a seat that has trended slightly Democratic in recent cycles and carries Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic ratings from major forecasters. Riley secured his nomination without opposition, while Peter Oberacker prevailed decisively in the Republican primary but has since seen national GOP groups withdraw substantial ad reservations and remove him from targeted programs amid concerns over competitiveness. Riley maintains a sizable fundraising edge heading into the November general election. Potential shifts could stem from unexpected turnout surges, major campaign developments, or late shifts in voter priorities on issues such as utility costs and economic conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions