The Missouri 5th congressional district race remains closely contested in trader pricing due to legal uncertainty surrounding the state's mid-decade redistricting map, which added rural counties and shifted the district toward Republican leanings while preserving a Kansas City core. Longtime Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver faces a crowded August primary field of Republican challengers including state Sen. Rick Brattin and others, with general election voters deciding in November. Recent candidate filings and ongoing court reviews of the map have kept probabilities tight, as any ruling altering boundaries or primary results could shift momentum. Fundraising reports and primary turnout will likely create separation before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-05 House Election Winner
MO-05 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
63%
Democratic Party
38%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$1,729 Vol.
63%
Democratic Party
$1,156 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Missouri 5th congressional district race remains closely contested in trader pricing due to legal uncertainty surrounding the state's mid-decade redistricting map, which added rural counties and shifted the district toward Republican leanings while preserving a Kansas City core. Longtime Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver faces a crowded August primary field of Republican challengers including state Sen. Rick Brattin and others, with general election voters deciding in November. Recent candidate filings and ongoing court reviews of the map have kept probabilities tight, as any ruling altering boundaries or primary results could shift momentum. Fundraising reports and primary turnout will likely create separation before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$2,885End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Missouri 5th congressional district race remains closely contested in trader pricing due to legal uncertainty surrounding the state's mid-decade redistricting map, which added rural counties and shifted the district toward Republican leanings while preserving a Kansas City core. Longtime Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver faces a crowded August primary field of Republican challengers including state Sen. Rick Brattin and others, with general election voters deciding in November. Recent candidate filings and ongoing court reviews of the map have kept probabilities tight, as any ruling altering boundaries or primary results could shift momentum. Fundraising reports and primary turnout will likely create separation before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,885End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Missouri 5th congressional district race remains closely contested in trader pricing due to legal uncertainty surrounding the state's mid-decade redistricting map, which added rural counties and shifted the district toward Republican leanings while preserving a Kansas City core. Longtime Democratic incumbent Emanuel Cleaver faces a crowded August primary field of Republican challengers including state Sen. Rick Brattin and others, with general election voters deciding in November. Recent candidate filings and ongoing court reviews of the map have kept probabilities tight, as any ruling altering boundaries or primary results could shift momentum. Fundraising reports and primary turnout will likely create separation before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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