Republican Rhett Marques holds a clear edge in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District race due to the redrawn map that favors GOP candidates by roughly 14 points based on 2024 presidential results. Forecasters rate the seat Likely or Lean Republican, reflecting the structural shift after the Supreme Court decision allowed new boundaries. Marques secured the Republican nomination in the August primary and benefits from endorsements including from President Trump, while attacking incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures on votes against tax cuts for tips and overtime, a congressional stock-trading bill, and past tax increases. Democratic internal polls from summer showed a statistical tie, but current models project a narrow Republican win. The November 3 contest features ongoing ad spending by both sides and recent exchanges over debates and policy records.