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Economy·CPI

September Inflation US - Annual

icon for September Inflation US - Annual
Economy·CPI

September Inflation US - Annual

Oct 15

Oct 15

3.6% 47%

3.7% 27%

3.5% 16%

3.8% 4.9%

Polymarket

$72,639 Vol.

3.6% 47%

3.7% 27%

3.5% 16%

3.8% 4.9%

Polymarket

$72,639 Vol.

≤2.9%

$2,810 Vol.

<1%

3.0%

$2,667 Vol.

<1%

3.1%

$2,704 Vol.

<1%

3.2%

$2,681 Vol.

<1%

3.3%

$3,253 Vol.

2%

3.4%

$6,339 Vol.

4%

3.5%

$16,176 Vol.

16%

3.6%

$12,811 Vol.

47%

3.7%

$9,756 Vol.

27%

3.8%

$6,482 Vol.

5%

3.9%

$4,061 Vol.

1%

≥4.0%

$3,294 Vol.

2%

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent U.S. CPI data and central bank actions anchor trader expectations for the September 2026 annual inflation print near 3.6%. August CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, with a 0.4% monthly gain driven by an 8% surge in gasoline prices and firmer services inflation. The FOMC’s September 16 rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% range, citing upside risks from energy, tariffs, and broad-based price pressures exceeding 3% in over 60% of PCE components, reinforced the view that disinflation has stalled. Forecasters project a 0.5% monthly headline increase for September, translating to a 3.5–3.7% annual rate, while core measures are expected to ease modestly. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory ahead of the October 14 release, tempered by uncertainty around volatile energy and shelter components.

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$72,639
End Date
Oct 15, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:27 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent U.S. CPI data and central bank actions anchor trader expectations for the September 2026 annual inflation print near 3.6%. August CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, with a 0.4% monthly gain driven by an 8% surge in gasoline prices and firmer services inflation. The FOMC’s September 16 rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% range, citing upside risks from energy, tariffs, and broad-based price pressures exceeding 3% in over 60% of PCE components, reinforced the view that disinflation has stalled. Forecasters project a 0.5% monthly headline increase for September, translating to a 3.5–3.7% annual rate, while core measures are expected to ease modestly. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory ahead of the October 14 release, tempered by uncertainty around volatile energy and shelter components.

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$72,639
End Date
Oct 15, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:27 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"September Inflation US - Annual" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3.6%" at 48%, followed by "3.7%" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "September Inflation US - Annual" has generated $72.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "September Inflation US - Annual," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "September Inflation US - Annual" is "3.6%" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.7%" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "September Inflation US - Annual" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.