SpaceX completed its record $85.7 billion IPO in June 2026 and trades publicly under ticker SPCX, yet S&P Global has maintained its longstanding eligibility rules requiring positive earnings in the most recent quarter and the trailing four quarters combined. The company reported a net loss exceeding $4.9 billion for 2025 amid heavy AI and infrastructure spending, placing it outside those thresholds despite a market capitalization above $2 trillion. S&P explicitly declined to adjust criteria for large IPOs and indicated it would not consider inclusion until at least mid-2027. This combination of confirmed financial results and index policy has produced the 97% market-implied probability against 2026 addition, with only remote tail risks such as an unexpected rule revision or rapid profitability turnaround capable of altering the outcome before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1% chance
$27,911 Vol.
$27,911 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
1% chance
$27,911 Vol.
$27,911 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX completed its record $85.7 billion IPO in June 2026 and trades publicly under ticker SPCX, yet S&P Global has maintained its longstanding eligibility rules requiring positive earnings in the most recent quarter and the trailing four quarters combined. The company reported a net loss exceeding $4.9 billion for 2025 amid heavy AI and infrastructure spending, placing it outside those thresholds despite a market capitalization above $2 trillion. S&P explicitly declined to adjust criteria for large IPOs and indicated it would not consider inclusion until at least mid-2027. This combination of confirmed financial results and index policy has produced the 97% market-implied probability against 2026 addition, with only remote tail risks such as an unexpected rule revision or rapid profitability turnaround capable of altering the outcome before year-end.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ET
Volume
$27,911End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).SpaceX completed its record $85.7 billion IPO in June 2026 and trades publicly under ticker SPCX, yet S&P Global has maintained its longstanding eligibility rules requiring positive earnings in the most recent quarter and the trailing four quarters combined. The company reported a net loss exceeding $4.9 billion for 2025 amid heavy AI and infrastructure spending, placing it outside those thresholds despite a market capitalization above $2 trillion. S&P explicitly declined to adjust criteria for large IPOs and indicated it would not consider inclusion until at least mid-2027. This combination of confirmed financial results and index policy has produced the 97% market-implied probability against 2026 addition, with only remote tail risks such as an unexpected rule revision or rapid profitability turnaround capable of altering the outcome before year-end.
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Volume
$27,911End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX completed its record $85.7 billion IPO in June 2026 and trades publicly under ticker SPCX, yet S&P Global has maintained its longstanding eligibility rules requiring positive earnings in the most recent quarter and the trailing four quarters combined. The company reported a net loss exceeding $4.9 billion for 2025 amid heavy AI and infrastructure spending, placing it outside those thresholds despite a market capitalization above $2 trillion. S&P explicitly declined to adjust criteria for large IPOs and indicated it would not consider inclusion until at least mid-2027. This combination of confirmed financial results and index policy has produced the 97% market-implied probability against 2026 addition, with only remote tail risks such as an unexpected rule revision or rapid profitability turnaround capable of altering the outcome before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions