Spider-Man: Brand New Day's exceptional early legs, including a record $360 million domestic opening and a $70 million third weekend that ranks among the strongest ever for a superhero film, underpin trader focus on a 4th-weekend gross near $35–41 million. The Tom Holland-led Marvel title has already crossed $785 million domestically and $2 billion worldwide in just three weeks, outpacing historical benchmarks like The Force Awakens, yet faces typical late-summer softening as schools reopen and family audiences shift priorities. This creates tight clustering between the two leading brackets, with modest downside risk below $35 million if holds weaken more than expected and limited upside above $44 million absent major counterprogramming shifts. The next tracking updates and Friday estimates will likely refine sentiment ahead of the Aug. 21–23 frame.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office
38-41m 41%
35-38m 40%
41-44m 30%
44m+ 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
<35m
11%
35-38m
40%
38-41m
41%
41-44m
30%
44m+
12%
38-41m 41%
35-38m 40%
41-44m 30%
44m+ 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
<35m
$2,685 Vol.
11%
35-38m
$0 Vol.
40%
38-41m
$0 Vol.
41%
41-44m
$0 Vol.
30%
44m+
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day's exceptional early legs, including a record $360 million domestic opening and a $70 million third weekend that ranks among the strongest ever for a superhero film, underpin trader focus on a 4th-weekend gross near $35–41 million. The Tom Holland-led Marvel title has already crossed $785 million domestically and $2 billion worldwide in just three weeks, outpacing historical benchmarks like The Force Awakens, yet faces typical late-summer softening as schools reopen and family audiences shift priorities. This creates tight clustering between the two leading brackets, with modest downside risk below $35 million if holds weaken more than expected and limited upside above $44 million absent major counterprogramming shifts. The next tracking updates and Friday estimates will likely refine sentiment ahead of the Aug. 21–23 frame.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,685End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day's exceptional early legs, including a record $360 million domestic opening and a $70 million third weekend that ranks among the strongest ever for a superhero film, underpin trader focus on a 4th-weekend gross near $35–41 million. The Tom Holland-led Marvel title has already crossed $785 million domestically and $2 billion worldwide in just three weeks, outpacing historical benchmarks like The Force Awakens, yet faces typical late-summer softening as schools reopen and family audiences shift priorities. This creates tight clustering between the two leading brackets, with modest downside risk below $35 million if holds weaken more than expected and limited upside above $44 million absent major counterprogramming shifts. The next tracking updates and Friday estimates will likely refine sentiment ahead of the Aug. 21–23 frame.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$2,685End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day's exceptional early legs, including a record $360 million domestic opening and a $70 million third weekend that ranks among the strongest ever for a superhero film, underpin trader focus on a 4th-weekend gross near $35–41 million. The Tom Holland-led Marvel title has already crossed $785 million domestically and $2 billion worldwide in just three weeks, outpacing historical benchmarks like The Force Awakens, yet faces typical late-summer softening as schools reopen and family audiences shift priorities. This creates tight clustering between the two leading brackets, with modest downside risk below $35 million if holds weaken more than expected and limited upside above $44 million absent major counterprogramming shifts. The next tracking updates and Friday estimates will likely refine sentiment ahead of the Aug. 21–23 frame.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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