Recent Middle East energy supply disruptions have prompted sharp downward revisions to UK GDP growth forecasts for 2026, with institutions including the IMF, OECD, and EY now projecting 0.6–0.8 percent amid elevated inflation and tighter financial conditions. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 0.6 percent quarter-over-quarter, exceeding expectations, yet analysts highlight that higher energy prices and sticky inflation near 3.3 percent are likely to weigh on household spending and business investment through the remainder of the year. The Bank of England’s decision to hold the bank rate at 3.75 percent, with limited scope for cuts, further supports subdued growth expectations. With market-implied probabilities for the 0–1 percent and 1–2 percent bins nearly tied at 40.0 percent and 38.8 percent, traders appear divided on the precise magnitude of the slowdown, awaiting upcoming inflation releases and Bank of England communications for clearer signals on the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4-5% 33.9%
<0 25%
3-4% 4.2%
0-1% 0
NEW
NEW
Feb 12, 2027
<0
25%
0-1%
45%
1-2%
39%
2-3%
33%
3-4%
6%
4-5%
34%
5%+
27%
4-5% 33.9%
<0 25%
3-4% 4.2%
0-1% 0
NEW
NEW
Feb 12, 2027
<0
$345 Vol.
25%
0-1%
$386 Vol.
45%
1-2%
$210 Vol.
39%
2-3%
$247 Vol.
33%
3-4%
$201 Vol.
6%
4-5%
$428 Vol.
34%
5%+
$252 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Middle East energy supply disruptions have prompted sharp downward revisions to UK GDP growth forecasts for 2026, with institutions including the IMF, OECD, and EY now projecting 0.6–0.8 percent amid elevated inflation and tighter financial conditions. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 0.6 percent quarter-over-quarter, exceeding expectations, yet analysts highlight that higher energy prices and sticky inflation near 3.3 percent are likely to weigh on household spending and business investment through the remainder of the year. The Bank of England’s decision to hold the bank rate at 3.75 percent, with limited scope for cuts, further supports subdued growth expectations. With market-implied probabilities for the 0–1 percent and 1–2 percent bins nearly tied at 40.0 percent and 38.8 percent, traders appear divided on the precise magnitude of the slowdown, awaiting upcoming inflation releases and Bank of England communications for clearer signals on the trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$2,068End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Middle East energy supply disruptions have prompted sharp downward revisions to UK GDP growth forecasts for 2026, with institutions including the IMF, OECD, and EY now projecting 0.6–0.8 percent amid elevated inflation and tighter financial conditions. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 0.6 percent quarter-over-quarter, exceeding expectations, yet analysts highlight that higher energy prices and sticky inflation near 3.3 percent are likely to weigh on household spending and business investment through the remainder of the year. The Bank of England’s decision to hold the bank rate at 3.75 percent, with limited scope for cuts, further supports subdued growth expectations. With market-implied probabilities for the 0–1 percent and 1–2 percent bins nearly tied at 40.0 percent and 38.8 percent, traders appear divided on the precise magnitude of the slowdown, awaiting upcoming inflation releases and Bank of England communications for clearer signals on the trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,068End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Middle East energy supply disruptions have prompted sharp downward revisions to UK GDP growth forecasts for 2026, with institutions including the IMF, OECD, and EY now projecting 0.6–0.8 percent amid elevated inflation and tighter financial conditions. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 0.6 percent quarter-over-quarter, exceeding expectations, yet analysts highlight that higher energy prices and sticky inflation near 3.3 percent are likely to weigh on household spending and business investment through the remainder of the year. The Bank of England’s decision to hold the bank rate at 3.75 percent, with limited scope for cuts, further supports subdued growth expectations. With market-implied probabilities for the 0–1 percent and 1–2 percent bins nearly tied at 40.0 percent and 38.8 percent, traders appear divided on the precise magnitude of the slowdown, awaiting upcoming inflation releases and Bank of England communications for clearer signals on the trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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