Recent U.S. Drought Monitor analyses through late August, combined with mixed late-summer precipitation patterns, underpin the market's strong 95.5% implied probability for 25–34% of corn production area in drought (D1 or worse) during the week of September 1. Northern Plains and eastern Corn Belt showers have delivered localized relief and slowed rapid-onset drought, while persistent heat and dryness across the southern and western production zones have maintained moderate coverage without widespread escalation. USDA crop condition ratings near 57% good-to-excellent align with this moderate stress level. The next USDM update and any revised NOAA model runs could shift outcomes if heavier rainfall materializes in core states or if southern dryness intensifies further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1)
What percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1)
25% to 34% 95.5%
Under 25% 9.0%
50% or more <1%
35% to 49% <1%
$6,266 Vol.
$6,266 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
Under 25%
No
25% to 34%
Yes
35% to 49%
No
50% or more
No
25% to 34% 95.5%
Under 25% 9.0%
50% or more <1%
35% to 49% <1%
$6,266 Vol.
$6,266 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
Under 25%
$381 Vol.
No
25% to 34%
$3,047 Vol.
Yes
35% to 49%
$1,967 Vol.
No
50% or more
$872 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Corn Production Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for corn production with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor analyses through late August, combined with mixed late-summer precipitation patterns, underpin the market's strong 95.5% implied probability for 25–34% of corn production area in drought (D1 or worse) during the week of September 1. Northern Plains and eastern Corn Belt showers have delivered localized relief and slowed rapid-onset drought, while persistent heat and dryness across the southern and western production zones have maintained moderate coverage without widespread escalation. USDA crop condition ratings near 57% good-to-excellent align with this moderate stress level. The next USDM update and any revised NOAA model runs could shift outcomes if heavier rainfall materializes in core states or if southern dryness intensifies further.
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Corn Production Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for corn production with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for corn production with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$6,266End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Corn Production Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for corn production with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor analyses through late August, combined with mixed late-summer precipitation patterns, underpin the market's strong 95.5% implied probability for 25–34% of corn production area in drought (D1 or worse) during the week of September 1. Northern Plains and eastern Corn Belt showers have delivered localized relief and slowed rapid-onset drought, while persistent heat and dryness across the southern and western production zones have maintained moderate coverage without widespread escalation. USDA crop condition ratings near 57% good-to-excellent align with this moderate stress level. The next USDM update and any revised NOAA model runs could shift outcomes if heavier rainfall materializes in core states or if southern dryness intensifies further.
This market will resolve based on the "D1-D4" value reported for "Percent of Corn Production Affected by Drought" on the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table (https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1), maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with the USDA.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for corn production with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported percentage for the U.S. Drought Monitor week of September 1, 2026. Each U.S. Drought Monitor release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final and will resolve this market independently of any later revisions or corrections.
If the source reports a value with decimals, it is rounded to the nearest whole number (a value of exactly 0.5 rounds up) before the bracket is selected. The brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints and do not overlap.
If no value for the week of September 1, 2026 is published by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published "D1-D4" value for corn production with an effective date on or before September 1, 2026.
Volume
$6,266End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolution Source
https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent U.S. Drought Monitor analyses through late August, combined with mixed late-summer precipitation patterns, underpin the market's strong 95.5% implied probability for 25–34% of corn production area in drought (D1 or worse) during the week of September 1. Northern Plains and eastern Corn Belt showers have delivered localized relief and slowed rapid-onset drought, while persistent heat and dryness across the southern and western production zones have maintained moderate coverage without widespread escalation. USDA crop condition ratings near 57% good-to-excellent align with this moderate stress level. The next USDM update and any revised NOAA model runs could shift outcomes if heavier rainfall materializes in core states or if southern dryness intensifies further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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