Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates tracking 5.1% annualized growth for Q3 2026, alongside median nowcasts near 2.8%, have anchored trader sentiment toward the ≥3.0% outcome at 76.5% implied probability. Robust personal consumption expenditures, rising government outlays, and AI-driven business investment in equipment and intellectual property have offset softer net exports and residential investment, lifting the tracking from Q2’s 1.5% pace. The Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike reflects persistent inflation pressures, yet resilient demand and productivity gains have sustained above-trend momentum into late September. Official BEA advance data due in October remains the key resolution catalyst, with revisions possible as final monthly indicators arrive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥3.0% 77%
2.5–3.0% 11%
2.0–2.5% 8%
1.5–2.0% 4.5%
$39,903 Vol.
$39,903 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
1%
1.0–1.5%
1%
1.5–2.0%
5%
2.0–2.5%
8%
2.5–3.0%
11%
≥3.0%
77%
≥3.0% 77%
2.5–3.0% 11%
2.0–2.5% 8%
1.5–2.0% 4.5%
$39,903 Vol.
$39,903 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$1,475 Vol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$877 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.5%
$966 Vol.
1%
1.5–2.0%
$1,035 Vol.
5%
2.0–2.5%
$2,358 Vol.
8%
2.5–3.0%
$3,930 Vol.
11%
≥3.0%
$29,261 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates tracking 5.1% annualized growth for Q3 2026, alongside median nowcasts near 2.8%, have anchored trader sentiment toward the ≥3.0% outcome at 76.5% implied probability. Robust personal consumption expenditures, rising government outlays, and AI-driven business investment in equipment and intellectual property have offset softer net exports and residential investment, lifting the tracking from Q2’s 1.5% pace. The Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike reflects persistent inflation pressures, yet resilient demand and productivity gains have sustained above-trend momentum into late September. Official BEA advance data due in October remains the key resolution catalyst, with revisions possible as final monthly indicators arrive.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$39,903End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates tracking 5.1% annualized growth for Q3 2026, alongside median nowcasts near 2.8%, have anchored trader sentiment toward the ≥3.0% outcome at 76.5% implied probability. Robust personal consumption expenditures, rising government outlays, and AI-driven business investment in equipment and intellectual property have offset softer net exports and residential investment, lifting the tracking from Q2’s 1.5% pace. The Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike reflects persistent inflation pressures, yet resilient demand and productivity gains have sustained above-trend momentum into late September. Official BEA advance data due in October remains the key resolution catalyst, with revisions possible as final monthly indicators arrive.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$39,903End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates tracking 5.1% annualized growth for Q3 2026, alongside median nowcasts near 2.8%, have anchored trader sentiment toward the ≥3.0% outcome at 76.5% implied probability. Robust personal consumption expenditures, rising government outlays, and AI-driven business investment in equipment and intellectual property have offset softer net exports and residential investment, lifting the tracking from Q2’s 1.5% pace. The Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike reflects persistent inflation pressures, yet resilient demand and productivity gains have sustained above-trend momentum into late September. Official BEA advance data due in October remains the key resolution catalyst, with revisions possible as final monthly indicators arrive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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