Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

icon for What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Economy·Jerome Powell

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$1,846,403 Vol.

Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,846,403 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5.5%

$55,489 Vol.

3%

↑ 5.25%

$142,579 Vol.

3%

↑ 5.0%

$19,789 Vol.

2%

↑ 4.75%

$80,664 Vol.

4%

↑ 4.5%

$40,929 Vol.

29%

↑ 4.25%

$130,161 Vol.

82%

↓ 3.25%

$81,643 Vol.

4%

↓ 3.0%

$320,110 Vol.

1%

↓ 2.75%

$366,465 Vol.

2%

↓ 2.5%

$225,788 Vol.

1%

↓ 2.25%

$41,840 Vol.

2%

↓ 2.0%

$21,380 Vol.

3%

↓ 1.75%

$13,136 Vol.

1%

↓ 1.5%

$28,330 Vol.

2%

↓ 1.25%

$5,186 Vol.

2%

↓ 1.0%

$2,331 Vol.

3%

↓ 0.75%

$741 Vol.

1%

↓ 0.5%

$107,217 Vol.

3%

↓ 0.25%

$132,417 Vol.

2%

↓ 0%

$21,203 Vol.

2%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve’s September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%—its first hike since 2023—reflects persistent inflation pressures, with August PCE at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures remaining elevated. Updated Summary of Economic Projections show the median policy rate at 4.1% through year-end 2026 and 2027, implying at least one additional hike this year and a hold thereafter, supported by solid GDP growth near 2.3% and unemployment around 4.1%. Traders are monitoring the October 28 FOMC meeting and December projections for confirmation of the tighter path, alongside incoming CPI, employment, and geopolitical developments that could alter the inflation trajectory before 2027.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,846,403
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve’s September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%—its first hike since 2023—reflects persistent inflation pressures, with August PCE at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures remaining elevated. Updated Summary of Economic Projections show the median policy rate at 4.1% through year-end 2026 and 2027, implying at least one additional hike this year and a hold thereafter, supported by solid GDP growth near 2.3% and unemployment around 4.1%. Traders are monitoring the October 28 FOMC meeting and December projections for confirmation of the tighter path, alongside incoming CPI, employment, and geopolitical developments that could alter the inflation trajectory before 2027.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,846,403
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

70%
icon for Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?

53%
icon for Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?

Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?

50%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, followed by " ↑ 4.25%" at 82%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" has generated $1.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is " ↓ 3.5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is " ↑ 4.25%" at 82%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.