Recent U.S. invitations for a December G20 summit in Miami have not shifted trader consensus away from China, where a possible November APEC gathering in Shenzhen offers a venue for bilateral or trilateral talks with Xi Jinping that Russian officials have publicly discussed. Ongoing U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv, plus repeated Trump-Putin phone calls focused on Ukraine peace efforts, have produced no confirmed bilateral site or date, supporting elevated odds on no meeting by year-end. Low probabilities for the United States reflect likely resistance from other G20 members to Putin’s attendance, while sparse indications for Russia, Gulf states, or European locations align with the absence of recent announcements or diplomatic signals favoring those options.