**Strong technical fingerprinting evidence positions Z.ai as the clear leader in the Ox Alpha market.** The anonymous reasoning model surfaced on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, offering a 1M-token context window, multimodal (text/image/video) input, tool calling, and free preview access for coding and agentic workloads. Community probes—including exact tokenizer matches, API error strings, and infrastructure fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, consistent with the company’s prior stealth preview of GLM-5 as “Pony Alpha.” Other labs show far weaker or zero matches, explaining their sub-5% implied probabilities. No company has claimed ownership yet, and while some early speculation considered Microsoft or Xiaomi, the accumulating evidence has consolidated trader consensus around Z.ai ahead of any official announcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedZ.ai 90%
Google 4.1%
Xiaomi 3.4%
Cursor 1.8%
NEW
$29,676 Vol.
NEW
$29,676 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Z.ai
90%
4%
Xiaomi
3%
Cursor
2%
Safe Superintelligence
2%
Meta
1%
Microsoft
1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Amazon
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot AI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Z.ai 90%
Google 4.1%
Xiaomi 3.4%
Cursor 1.8%
NEW
$29,676 Vol.
NEW
$29,676 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Z.ai
$9,418 Vol.
90%
$1,708 Vol.
4%
Xiaomi
$1,320 Vol.
3%
Cursor
$1,224 Vol.
2%
Safe Superintelligence
$1,424 Vol.
2%
Meta
$366 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$1,177 Vol.
1%
xAI
$1,317 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,289 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$579 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$527 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$547 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$532 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$918 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$770 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$871 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$984 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$881 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$981 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot AI
$757 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$366 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$602 Vol.
<1%
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong technical fingerprinting evidence positions Z.ai as the clear leader in the Ox Alpha market.** The anonymous reasoning model surfaced on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, offering a 1M-token context window, multimodal (text/image/video) input, tool calling, and free preview access for coding and agentic workloads. Community probes—including exact tokenizer matches, API error strings, and infrastructure fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, consistent with the company’s prior stealth preview of GLM-5 as “Pony Alpha.” Other labs show far weaker or zero matches, explaining their sub-5% implied probabilities. No company has claimed ownership yet, and while some early speculation considered Microsoft or Xiaomi, the accumulating evidence has consolidated trader consensus around Z.ai ahead of any official announcement.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ET
Volume
$29,676End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong technical fingerprinting evidence positions Z.ai as the clear leader in the Ox Alpha market.** The anonymous reasoning model surfaced on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, offering a 1M-token context window, multimodal (text/image/video) input, tool calling, and free preview access for coding and agentic workloads. Community probes—including exact tokenizer matches, API error strings, and infrastructure fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, consistent with the company’s prior stealth preview of GLM-5 as “Pony Alpha.” Other labs show far weaker or zero matches, explaining their sub-5% implied probabilities. No company has claimed ownership yet, and while some early speculation considered Microsoft or Xiaomi, the accumulating evidence has consolidated trader consensus around Z.ai ahead of any official announcement.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$29,676End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong technical fingerprinting evidence positions Z.ai as the clear leader in the Ox Alpha market.** The anonymous reasoning model surfaced on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, offering a 1M-token context window, multimodal (text/image/video) input, tool calling, and free preview access for coding and agentic workloads. Community probes—including exact tokenizer matches, API error strings, and infrastructure fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, consistent with the company’s prior stealth preview of GLM-5 as “Pony Alpha.” Other labs show far weaker or zero matches, explaining their sub-5% implied probabilities. No company has claimed ownership yet, and while some early speculation considered Microsoft or Xiaomi, the accumulating evidence has consolidated trader consensus around Z.ai ahead of any official announcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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