Traders currently assign Anthropic the highest implied probability for the best large language model by end of June, driven by its recent Claude 4 release that posted state-of-the-art results on rigorous benchmarks such as GPQA and SWE-bench. These gains have strengthened Anthropic’s edge in coding assistance and reasoning tasks relative to competitors. Google’s Gemini updates continue to close gaps in multimodal capabilities, supporting its secondary positioning, while OpenAI’s latest iterations have faced delays that tempered expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include new third-party evaluations and developer conference announcements that could shift sentiment as the resolution date nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 72.5%
Google 21%
OpenAI 5.1%
xAI 1.4%
$6,039,687 Vol.
$6,039,687 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
73%
21%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 72.5%
Google 21%
OpenAI 5.1%
xAI 1.4%
$6,039,687 Vol.
$6,039,687 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$846,766 Vol.
73%
$550,824 Vol.
21%
OpenAI
$344,616 Vol.
5%
xAI
$1,071,754 Vol.
1%
Meta
$137,494 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$505,147 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$164,156 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$304,042 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$488,104 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$157,197 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$162,651 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$390,758 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$364,828 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$385,034 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$166,496 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders currently assign Anthropic the highest implied probability for the best large language model by end of June, driven by its recent Claude 4 release that posted state-of-the-art results on rigorous benchmarks such as GPQA and SWE-bench. These gains have strengthened Anthropic’s edge in coding assistance and reasoning tasks relative to competitors. Google’s Gemini updates continue to close gaps in multimodal capabilities, supporting its secondary positioning, while OpenAI’s latest iterations have faced delays that tempered expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include new third-party evaluations and developer conference announcements that could shift sentiment as the resolution date nears.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$6,039,687End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders currently assign Anthropic the highest implied probability for the best large language model by end of June, driven by its recent Claude 4 release that posted state-of-the-art results on rigorous benchmarks such as GPQA and SWE-bench. These gains have strengthened Anthropic’s edge in coding assistance and reasoning tasks relative to competitors. Google’s Gemini updates continue to close gaps in multimodal capabilities, supporting its secondary positioning, while OpenAI’s latest iterations have faced delays that tempered expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include new third-party evaluations and developer conference announcements that could shift sentiment as the resolution date nears.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$6,039,687End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders currently assign Anthropic the highest implied probability for the best large language model by end of June, driven by its recent Claude 4 release that posted state-of-the-art results on rigorous benchmarks such as GPQA and SWE-bench. These gains have strengthened Anthropic’s edge in coding assistance and reasoning tasks relative to competitors. Google’s Gemini updates continue to close gaps in multimodal capabilities, supporting its secondary positioning, while OpenAI’s latest iterations have faced delays that tempered expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include new third-party evaluations and developer conference announcements that could shift sentiment as the resolution date nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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