Anthropic holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the strongest math-focused artificial intelligence model by end of May, driven by consistent outperformance on complex reasoning benchmarks and recent refinements to its large language model architecture. Traders appear to favor the company's emphasis on step-by-step problem solving and verifiable outputs, which have positioned Claude variants ahead of competitors in high-stakes mathematical tasks. Google follows at a distant second, buoyed by Gemini's multimodal capabilities and steady benchmark gains, while OpenAI trails amid ongoing competition from its o-series reasoning models. With resolution just weeks away, upcoming developer updates or third-party evaluations could still shift sentiment if they highlight unexpected advances from lower-probability contenders like DeepSeek or xAI.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 71%
Google 15%
OpenAI 12%
xAI <1%
$120,918 Vol.
$120,918 Vol.

Anthropic
71%

15%

OpenAI
12%

xAI
1%

ByteDance
1%

Z.ai
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Meta
1%

Baidu
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 71%
Google 15%
OpenAI 12%
xAI <1%
$120,918 Vol.
$120,918 Vol.

Anthropic
71%

15%

OpenAI
12%

xAI
1%

ByteDance
1%

Z.ai
1%

DeepSeek
1%

Meta
1%

Baidu
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the strongest math-focused artificial intelligence model by end of May, driven by consistent outperformance on complex reasoning benchmarks and recent refinements to its large language model architecture. Traders appear to favor the company's emphasis on step-by-step problem solving and verifiable outputs, which have positioned Claude variants ahead of competitors in high-stakes mathematical tasks. Google follows at a distant second, buoyed by Gemini's multimodal capabilities and steady benchmark gains, while OpenAI trails amid ongoing competition from its o-series reasoning models. With resolution just weeks away, upcoming developer updates or third-party evaluations could still shift sentiment if they highlight unexpected advances from lower-probability contenders like DeepSeek or xAI.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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