Traders see Anthropic as the clear leader for the best math AI model by end of May, with its 70.5% implied probability reflecting recent Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 releases that deliver strong results on reasoning-heavy benchmarks such as AIME and MATH variants. These models emphasize deliberate, multi-step thinking modes that improve performance on complex problems, giving Anthropic an edge over competitors in trader assessments of current capabilities. Google’s Gemini 3 series sits at 15.5% on the strength of consistent high-school and competition math scores, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 and o3 variants hold 12.0% amid ongoing refinements to their reasoning stack. With the resolution date approaching, any new benchmark releases or model updates in the coming weeks could still shift sentiment, though Anthropic’s recent demonstrated consistency on math tasks underpins the current market consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 71%
Google 16%
OpenAI 13%
xAI <1%
$120,915 Vol.
$120,915 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
71%
16%
OpenAI
13%
xAI
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
Baidu
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 71%
Google 16%
OpenAI 13%
xAI <1%
$120,915 Vol.
$120,915 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$19,762 Vol.
71%
$11,581 Vol.
16%
OpenAI
$19,317 Vol.
13%
xAI
$9,193 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$7,209 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$7,004 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$6,880 Vol.
1%
Meta
$6,837 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$7,254 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$7,515 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$8,279 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,116 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,546 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,909 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,512 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders see Anthropic as the clear leader for the best math AI model by end of May, with its 70.5% implied probability reflecting recent Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 releases that deliver strong results on reasoning-heavy benchmarks such as AIME and MATH variants. These models emphasize deliberate, multi-step thinking modes that improve performance on complex problems, giving Anthropic an edge over competitors in trader assessments of current capabilities. Google’s Gemini 3 series sits at 15.5% on the strength of consistent high-school and competition math scores, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 and o3 variants hold 12.0% amid ongoing refinements to their reasoning stack. With the resolution date approaching, any new benchmark releases or model updates in the coming weeks could still shift sentiment, though Anthropic’s recent demonstrated consistency on math tasks underpins the current market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$120,915End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders see Anthropic as the clear leader for the best math AI model by end of May, with its 70.5% implied probability reflecting recent Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 releases that deliver strong results on reasoning-heavy benchmarks such as AIME and MATH variants. These models emphasize deliberate, multi-step thinking modes that improve performance on complex problems, giving Anthropic an edge over competitors in trader assessments of current capabilities. Google’s Gemini 3 series sits at 15.5% on the strength of consistent high-school and competition math scores, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 and o3 variants hold 12.0% amid ongoing refinements to their reasoning stack. With the resolution date approaching, any new benchmark releases or model updates in the coming weeks could still shift sentiment, though Anthropic’s recent demonstrated consistency on math tasks underpins the current market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$120,915End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see Anthropic as the clear leader for the best math AI model by end of May, with its 70.5% implied probability reflecting recent Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 releases that deliver strong results on reasoning-heavy benchmarks such as AIME and MATH variants. These models emphasize deliberate, multi-step thinking modes that improve performance on complex problems, giving Anthropic an edge over competitors in trader assessments of current capabilities. Google’s Gemini 3 series sits at 15.5% on the strength of consistent high-school and competition math scores, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 and o3 variants hold 12.0% amid ongoing refinements to their reasoning stack. With the resolution date approaching, any new benchmark releases or model updates in the coming weeks could still shift sentiment, though Anthropic’s recent demonstrated consistency on math tasks underpins the current market consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions