Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and Mythos Preview lead recent benchmarks in coding, agentic workflows, and long-context reasoning, driving trader consensus toward a 67.5% implied probability that the company will hold the top large language model by end of June. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro follows at 24% on the strength of its multimodal and GPQA performance, yet trails in developer adoption metrics. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family sits at 5.5% after incremental updates rather than a decisive leap, while xAI and others remain below 3% amid slower capability gains. Upcoming earnings calls and any mid-June model refreshes from the frontier labs represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 68%
Google 23%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,457,086 Vol.
$1,457,086 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
68%
23%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Microsoft
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 68%
Google 23%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,457,086 Vol.
$1,457,086 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$30,603 Vol.
68%
$18,763 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$49,359 Vol.
6%
xAI
$14,989 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,160 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$136,546 Vol.
1%
Meta
$8,179 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,921 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$11,907 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,389 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$270,728 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$59,374 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,844 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,646 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$17,681 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and Mythos Preview lead recent benchmarks in coding, agentic workflows, and long-context reasoning, driving trader consensus toward a 67.5% implied probability that the company will hold the top large language model by end of June. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro follows at 24% on the strength of its multimodal and GPQA performance, yet trails in developer adoption metrics. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family sits at 5.5% after incremental updates rather than a decisive leap, while xAI and others remain below 3% amid slower capability gains. Upcoming earnings calls and any mid-June model refreshes from the frontier labs represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,457,086End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and Mythos Preview lead recent benchmarks in coding, agentic workflows, and long-context reasoning, driving trader consensus toward a 67.5% implied probability that the company will hold the top large language model by end of June. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro follows at 24% on the strength of its multimodal and GPQA performance, yet trails in developer adoption metrics. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family sits at 5.5% after incremental updates rather than a decisive leap, while xAI and others remain below 3% amid slower capability gains. Upcoming earnings calls and any mid-June model refreshes from the frontier labs represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,457,086End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and Mythos Preview lead recent benchmarks in coding, agentic workflows, and long-context reasoning, driving trader consensus toward a 67.5% implied probability that the company will hold the top large language model by end of June. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro follows at 24% on the strength of its multimodal and GPQA performance, yet trails in developer adoption metrics. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family sits at 5.5% after incremental updates rather than a decisive leap, while xAI and others remain below 3% amid slower capability gains. Upcoming earnings calls and any mid-June model refreshes from the frontier labs represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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