The 63.5% market-implied probability favoring no Category 4 landfall before 2027 stems primarily from the Colorado State University April 2026 forecast for below-average Atlantic activity, projecting just two major hurricanes and only a 32% chance of any Category 3+ landfall along the continental U.S. coastline versus the long-term 43% average. This outlook arises from a weak La Niña transitioning toward El Niño conditions expected to boost vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing intensification of storms that do form. The 2025 season reinforced this caution by producing no U.S. hurricane landfalls—the first such occurrence in a decade—despite three Category 5 systems in the basin overall. With no tropical cyclones active as of mid-May and the National Hurricane Center's peak-season monitoring window approaching, traders are weighting the elevated shear and reduced major-hurricane counts heavily against the historical baseline of occasional intense landfalls. NOAA's updated 2026 seasonal outlook, due May 21, could shift sentiment if it revises storm numbers upward.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$327,991 Vol.
$327,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$327,991 Vol.
$327,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 63.5% market-implied probability favoring no Category 4 landfall before 2027 stems primarily from the Colorado State University April 2026 forecast for below-average Atlantic activity, projecting just two major hurricanes and only a 32% chance of any Category 3+ landfall along the continental U.S. coastline versus the long-term 43% average. This outlook arises from a weak La Niña transitioning toward El Niño conditions expected to boost vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing intensification of storms that do form. The 2025 season reinforced this caution by producing no U.S. hurricane landfalls—the first such occurrence in a decade—despite three Category 5 systems in the basin overall. With no tropical cyclones active as of mid-May and the National Hurricane Center's peak-season monitoring window approaching, traders are weighting the elevated shear and reduced major-hurricane counts heavily against the historical baseline of occasional intense landfalls. NOAA's updated 2026 seasonal outlook, due May 21, could shift sentiment if it revises storm numbers upward.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$327,991End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 63.5% market-implied probability favoring no Category 4 landfall before 2027 stems primarily from the Colorado State University April 2026 forecast for below-average Atlantic activity, projecting just two major hurricanes and only a 32% chance of any Category 3+ landfall along the continental U.S. coastline versus the long-term 43% average. This outlook arises from a weak La Niña transitioning toward El Niño conditions expected to boost vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing intensification of storms that do form. The 2025 season reinforced this caution by producing no U.S. hurricane landfalls—the first such occurrence in a decade—despite three Category 5 systems in the basin overall. With no tropical cyclones active as of mid-May and the National Hurricane Center's peak-season monitoring window approaching, traders are weighting the elevated shear and reduced major-hurricane counts heavily against the historical baseline of occasional intense landfalls. NOAA's updated 2026 seasonal outlook, due May 21, could shift sentiment if it revises storm numbers upward.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$327,991End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 63.5% market-implied probability favoring no Category 4 landfall before 2027 stems primarily from the Colorado State University April 2026 forecast for below-average Atlantic activity, projecting just two major hurricanes and only a 32% chance of any Category 3+ landfall along the continental U.S. coastline versus the long-term 43% average. This outlook arises from a weak La Niña transitioning toward El Niño conditions expected to boost vertical wind shear across the main development region, suppressing intensification of storms that do form. The 2025 season reinforced this caution by producing no U.S. hurricane landfalls—the first such occurrence in a decade—despite three Category 5 systems in the basin overall. With no tropical cyclones active as of mid-May and the National Hurricane Center's peak-season monitoring window approaching, traders are weighting the elevated shear and reduced major-hurricane counts heavily against the historical baseline of occasional intense landfalls. NOAA's updated 2026 seasonal outlook, due May 21, could shift sentiment if it revises storm numbers upward.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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