The National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic tropical weather outlooks indicate no areas of disturbed weather with potential for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days leading up to the June 1 start of hurricane season, driving trader consensus to a 96.5% implied probability for "No" named storm beforehand. Strong vertical wind shear across the main development region, persistent dry Saharan air intrusions, and insufficient organized convection suppress genesis despite above-average sea surface temperatures. No significant tropical waves or low-pressure systems have emerged in the past 30 days, aligning with historical patterns where pre-season named storms occur in fewer than 40% of recent years. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen relaxation in shear over the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, with daily NHC updates from May 15 providing key monitoring points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNamed storm forms before hurricane season?
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$340,711 Vol.
$340,711 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$340,711 Vol.
$340,711 Vol.
May 31, 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic tropical weather outlooks indicate no areas of disturbed weather with potential for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days leading up to the June 1 start of hurricane season, driving trader consensus to a 96.5% implied probability for "No" named storm beforehand. Strong vertical wind shear across the main development region, persistent dry Saharan air intrusions, and insufficient organized convection suppress genesis despite above-average sea surface temperatures. No significant tropical waves or low-pressure systems have emerged in the past 30 days, aligning with historical patterns where pre-season named storms occur in fewer than 40% of recent years. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen relaxation in shear over the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, with daily NHC updates from May 15 providing key monitoring points.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$340,711End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic tropical weather outlooks indicate no areas of disturbed weather with potential for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days leading up to the June 1 start of hurricane season, driving trader consensus to a 96.5% implied probability for "No" named storm beforehand. Strong vertical wind shear across the main development region, persistent dry Saharan air intrusions, and insufficient organized convection suppress genesis despite above-average sea surface temperatures. No significant tropical waves or low-pressure systems have emerged in the past 30 days, aligning with historical patterns where pre-season named storms occur in fewer than 40% of recent years. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen relaxation in shear over the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, with daily NHC updates from May 15 providing key monitoring points.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$340,711End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center's latest Atlantic tropical weather outlooks indicate no areas of disturbed weather with potential for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days leading up to the June 1 start of hurricane season, driving trader consensus to a 96.5% implied probability for "No" named storm beforehand. Strong vertical wind shear across the main development region, persistent dry Saharan air intrusions, and insufficient organized convection suppress genesis despite above-average sea surface temperatures. No significant tropical waves or low-pressure systems have emerged in the past 30 days, aligning with historical patterns where pre-season named storms occur in fewer than 40% of recent years. Realistic shifts could arise from an unforeseen relaxation in shear over the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, with daily NHC updates from May 15 providing key monitoring points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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