Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting Beijing’s sustained pattern of military pressure through unannounced drills rather than direct amphibious assault. In early November 2026, the People’s Liberation Army conducted large-scale area-denial exercises across the western Pacific involving over 100 vessels that simulated strikes on Taiwan and external forces, which Taipei described as “silent intimidation” ahead of the APEC summit. These operations have since moderated, coinciding with President Xi Jinping’s November 12 speech calling for peaceful reunification without referencing force. U.S. assessments continue to highlight PLA readiness gaps from prior purges and the operational complexity of an invasion, while analysts view blockade or quarantine scenarios as more probable near-term escalations. Scheduled diplomatic contacts, including potential Xi-Trump engagement, further support the current trader consensus on the low likelihood of invasion within the resolution window.