The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict remains the dominant barrier to readmission, as G7 leaders at the June 2026 Évian summit reaffirmed commitments to strengthen sanctions on Russian energy exports and provide additional military support to Kyiv. All seven members must reach consensus for any invitation, and recent joint statements emphasize territorial integrity and economic pressure rather than diplomatic reintegration. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in December 2025 that Moscow has no interest in returning, citing the group's diminished global economic weight. Traders assign a 98.4% probability to "No" by December 31, 2026, reflecting these entrenched positions and the absence of qualifying concessions or formal overtures. A rapid, verifiable Ukraine settlement acceptable to G7 capitals, combined with explicit invitations and Russian acceptance, could still shift the outcome in the limited remaining window, though such developments lack current momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$53,393 Vol.
$53,393 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% chance
$53,393 Vol.
$53,393 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.
A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict remains the dominant barrier to readmission, as G7 leaders at the June 2026 Évian summit reaffirmed commitments to strengthen sanctions on Russian energy exports and provide additional military support to Kyiv. All seven members must reach consensus for any invitation, and recent joint statements emphasize territorial integrity and economic pressure rather than diplomatic reintegration. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in December 2025 that Moscow has no interest in returning, citing the group's diminished global economic weight. Traders assign a 98.4% probability to "No" by December 31, 2026, reflecting these entrenched positions and the absence of qualifying concessions or formal overtures. A rapid, verifiable Ukraine settlement acceptable to G7 capitals, combined with explicit invitations and Russian acceptance, could still shift the outcome in the limited remaining window, though such developments lack current momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.
A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.
A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:25 AM ET
Volume
$53,393End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:25 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.
A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict remains the dominant barrier to readmission, as G7 leaders at the June 2026 Évian summit reaffirmed commitments to strengthen sanctions on Russian energy exports and provide additional military support to Kyiv. All seven members must reach consensus for any invitation, and recent joint statements emphasize territorial integrity and economic pressure rather than diplomatic reintegration. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in December 2025 that Moscow has no interest in returning, citing the group's diminished global economic weight. Traders assign a 98.4% probability to "No" by December 31, 2026, reflecting these entrenched positions and the absence of qualifying concessions or formal overtures. A rapid, verifiable Ukraine settlement acceptable to G7 capitals, combined with explicit invitations and Russian acceptance, could still shift the outcome in the limited remaining window, though such developments lack current momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.
A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.
A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$53,393End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:25 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict remains the dominant barrier to readmission, as G7 leaders at the June 2026 Évian summit reaffirmed commitments to strengthen sanctions on Russian energy exports and provide additional military support to Kyiv. All seven members must reach consensus for any invitation, and recent joint statements emphasize territorial integrity and economic pressure rather than diplomatic reintegration. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in December 2025 that Moscow has no interest in returning, citing the group's diminished global economic weight. Traders assign a 98.4% probability to "No" by December 31, 2026, reflecting these entrenched positions and the absence of qualifying concessions or formal overtures. A rapid, verifiable Ukraine settlement acceptable to G7 capitals, combined with explicit invitations and Russian acceptance, could still shift the outcome in the limited remaining window, though such developments lack current momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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