The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range on September 16, coupled with updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials favoring at least one more increase by year-end, stands as the dominant factor shaping near-term S&P 500 expectations. Hawkish commentary from Chair Warsh on persistent inflation—driven by elevated oil prices amid geopolitical tensions—pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.9% and triggered initial equity volatility, with the index closing the week near 7,650 after mixed sessions. Solid labor data, including near-historic-low jobless claims, reinforced the case for tighter policy while supporting growth forecasts around 2.3% for 2026. Traders are now focused on this week’s ADP employment report, preliminary S&P Global PMI releases, and initial claims for clues on whether the labor market can withstand further tightening without derailing the equity advance. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around the pace of any additional hikes and their impact on valuations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 25, 2026
↑ $795
3%
↑ $790
4%
↑ $785
5%
↑ $780
12%
↑ $775
33%
↑ $770
61%
↑ $765
90%
↓ $760
70%
↓ $755
40%
↓ $750
22%
↓ $745
11%
↓ $740
7%
↓ $735
6%
↓ $730
4%
$3,657 Vol.
↑ $795
$320 Vol.
3%
↑ $790
$0 Vol.
4%
↑ $785
$0 Vol.
5%
↑ $780
$453 Vol.
12%
↑ $775
$239 Vol.
33%
↑ $770
$563 Vol.
61%
↑ $765
$983 Vol.
90%
↓ $760
$100 Vol.
70%
↓ $755
$62 Vol.
40%
↓ $750
$85 Vol.
22%
↓ $745
$771 Vol.
11%
↓ $740
$0 Vol.
7%
↓ $735
$20 Vol.
6%
↓ $730
$60 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 21 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range on September 16, coupled with updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials favoring at least one more increase by year-end, stands as the dominant factor shaping near-term S&P 500 expectations. Hawkish commentary from Chair Warsh on persistent inflation—driven by elevated oil prices amid geopolitical tensions—pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.9% and triggered initial equity volatility, with the index closing the week near 7,650 after mixed sessions. Solid labor data, including near-historic-low jobless claims, reinforced the case for tighter policy while supporting growth forecasts around 2.3% for 2026. Traders are now focused on this week’s ADP employment report, preliminary S&P Global PMI releases, and initial claims for clues on whether the labor market can withstand further tightening without derailing the equity advance. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around the pace of any additional hikes and their impact on valuations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 21 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
Volume
$3,657End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 21 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range on September 16, coupled with updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials favoring at least one more increase by year-end, stands as the dominant factor shaping near-term S&P 500 expectations. Hawkish commentary from Chair Warsh on persistent inflation—driven by elevated oil prices amid geopolitical tensions—pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.9% and triggered initial equity volatility, with the index closing the week near 7,650 after mixed sessions. Solid labor data, including near-historic-low jobless claims, reinforced the case for tighter policy while supporting growth forecasts around 2.3% for 2026. Traders are now focused on this week’s ADP employment report, preliminary S&P Global PMI releases, and initial claims for clues on whether the labor market can withstand further tightening without derailing the equity advance. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around the pace of any additional hikes and their impact on valuations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 21 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Volume
$3,657End Date
Sep 25, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range on September 16, coupled with updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials favoring at least one more increase by year-end, stands as the dominant factor shaping near-term S&P 500 expectations. Hawkish commentary from Chair Warsh on persistent inflation—driven by elevated oil prices amid geopolitical tensions—pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.9% and triggered initial equity volatility, with the index closing the week near 7,650 after mixed sessions. Solid labor data, including near-historic-low jobless claims, reinforced the case for tighter policy while supporting growth forecasts around 2.3% for 2026. Traders are now focused on this week’s ADP employment report, preliminary S&P Global PMI releases, and initial claims for clues on whether the labor market can withstand further tightening without derailing the equity advance. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around the pace of any additional hikes and their impact on valuations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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