Recent polling averages place the PSOE-A on track for its weakest showing in decades in Sunday’s Andalusian regional election, with projected vote shares in the low-to-mid 20s. This range maps directly onto the 24-30 seat band that currently dominates trader pricing between the 24-26 and 27-29 buckets. Late-campaign surveys from Sigma Dos, GAD3 and others have shown only modest movement in the final fortnight, reflecting stable voter intentions and limited late shifts among undecided or swing voters in key provinces. With no major scandals or policy surprises emerging since the final debate, the narrow gap between the two leading outcomes mirrors the uncertainty in final seat allocation under Andalusia’s provincial d’Hondt system, where small changes in turnout or provincial margins can still move the result by one or two seats.