California's 51st congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean reinforced by recent redistricting under Proposition 50, giving incumbent Sara Jacobs a substantial structural edge in the November 2026 general election. Jacobs advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a clear majority over Republican Ricardo Cabrera, underscoring limited crossover appeal for challengers in this San Diego-area seat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic outcome a 94% implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for similarly partisan districts. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include major late-cycle scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout driven by national conditions, though such developments remain uncommon in this environment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-51 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-51 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$32,177 Vol.
$32,177 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
4%
$32,177 Vol.
$32,177 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$17,923 Vol.
94%
Parti républicain
$14,253 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 51st congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean reinforced by recent redistricting under Proposition 50, giving incumbent Sara Jacobs a substantial structural edge in the November 2026 general election. Jacobs advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a clear majority over Republican Ricardo Cabrera, underscoring limited crossover appeal for challengers in this San Diego-area seat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic outcome a 94% implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for similarly partisan districts. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include major late-cycle scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout driven by national conditions, though such developments remain uncommon in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$32,177Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 51st congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean reinforced by recent redistricting under Proposition 50, giving incumbent Sara Jacobs a substantial structural edge in the November 2026 general election. Jacobs advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a clear majority over Republican Ricardo Cabrera, underscoring limited crossover appeal for challengers in this San Diego-area seat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic outcome a 94% implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for similarly partisan districts. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include major late-cycle scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout driven by national conditions, though such developments remain uncommon in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,177Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 51st congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic lean reinforced by recent redistricting under Proposition 50, giving incumbent Sara Jacobs a substantial structural edge in the November 2026 general election. Jacobs advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a clear majority over Republican Ricardo Cabrera, underscoring limited crossover appeal for challengers in this San Diego-area seat. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the Democratic outcome a 94% implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for similarly partisan districts. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include major late-cycle scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout driven by national conditions, though such developments remain uncommon in this environment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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