Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs holds a commanding position in California's 51st congressional district, reflected in the market's 94% implied probability for a Democratic win. The district's partisan voting index favors Democrats by double digits, supported by consistent primary performance where Jacobs captured nearly 58% against limited Republican opposition. Analyst ratings classify the race as solid Democratic, consistent with historical margins and voter composition. The Republican challenger advanced from the June primary but faces structural disadvantages in a district with limited swing potential. Late developments such as major scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or exceptional turnout shifts could alter outcomes, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-51 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-51 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$32,177 Vol.
$32,177 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
4%
$32,177 Vol.
$32,177 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$17,923 Vol.
94%
Parti républicain
$14,253 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs holds a commanding position in California's 51st congressional district, reflected in the market's 94% implied probability for a Democratic win. The district's partisan voting index favors Democrats by double digits, supported by consistent primary performance where Jacobs captured nearly 58% against limited Republican opposition. Analyst ratings classify the race as solid Democratic, consistent with historical margins and voter composition. The Republican challenger advanced from the June primary but faces structural disadvantages in a district with limited swing potential. Late developments such as major scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or exceptional turnout shifts could alter outcomes, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$32,177Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs holds a commanding position in California's 51st congressional district, reflected in the market's 94% implied probability for a Democratic win. The district's partisan voting index favors Democrats by double digits, supported by consistent primary performance where Jacobs captured nearly 58% against limited Republican opposition. Analyst ratings classify the race as solid Democratic, consistent with historical margins and voter composition. The Republican challenger advanced from the June primary but faces structural disadvantages in a district with limited swing potential. Late developments such as major scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or exceptional turnout shifts could alter outcomes, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,177Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sara Jacobs holds a commanding position in California's 51st congressional district, reflected in the market's 94% implied probability for a Democratic win. The district's partisan voting index favors Democrats by double digits, supported by consistent primary performance where Jacobs captured nearly 58% against limited Republican opposition. Analyst ratings classify the race as solid Democratic, consistent with historical margins and voter composition. The Republican challenger advanced from the June primary but faces structural disadvantages in a district with limited swing potential. Late developments such as major scandals, health events affecting the incumbent, or exceptional turnout shifts could alter outcomes, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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