The Democratic nominee holds an 88.5% implied probability in the CA-48 general election matchup because the San Diego-area district shifted to a slight Democratic lean after 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, with voter registration showing Democrats at 37% versus Republicans at 33%. San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert advanced from the June 2 primary and faces Republican Jim Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor, in the November 3 contest for the open seat vacated by retiring Republican Darrell Issa. Early polling and fundraising patterns indicate von Wilpert benefits from the district’s partisan voting index and local name recognition in a race rated Lean Democratic by analysts. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors rather than any single late-breaking event.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-48 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-48 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$31,128 Vol.
$31,128 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
89%
Parti républicain
11%
$31,128 Vol.
$31,128 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$16,125 Vol.
89%
Parti républicain
$15,003 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee holds an 88.5% implied probability in the CA-48 general election matchup because the San Diego-area district shifted to a slight Democratic lean after 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, with voter registration showing Democrats at 37% versus Republicans at 33%. San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert advanced from the June 2 primary and faces Republican Jim Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor, in the November 3 contest for the open seat vacated by retiring Republican Darrell Issa. Early polling and fundraising patterns indicate von Wilpert benefits from the district’s partisan voting index and local name recognition in a race rated Lean Democratic by analysts. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors rather than any single late-breaking event.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$31,128Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee holds an 88.5% implied probability in the CA-48 general election matchup because the San Diego-area district shifted to a slight Democratic lean after 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, with voter registration showing Democrats at 37% versus Republicans at 33%. San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert advanced from the June 2 primary and faces Republican Jim Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor, in the November 3 contest for the open seat vacated by retiring Republican Darrell Issa. Early polling and fundraising patterns indicate von Wilpert benefits from the district’s partisan voting index and local name recognition in a race rated Lean Democratic by analysts. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors rather than any single late-breaking event.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,128Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee holds an 88.5% implied probability in the CA-48 general election matchup because the San Diego-area district shifted to a slight Democratic lean after 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, with voter registration showing Democrats at 37% versus Republicans at 33%. San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert advanced from the June 2 primary and faces Republican Jim Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor, in the November 3 contest for the open seat vacated by retiring Republican Darrell Issa. Early polling and fundraising patterns indicate von Wilpert benefits from the district’s partisan voting index and local name recognition in a race rated Lean Democratic by analysts. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors rather than any single late-breaking event.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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