Trader sentiment on the July 2026 Core CPI year-over-year reading shows evenly matched probabilities across outcome ranges, underscoring high uncertainty in the inflation path. Recent labor market softening and mixed signals from producer prices have offset persistent shelter costs and services inflation, keeping market-implied odds balanced near the 2.5–2.8% zone. The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot and communications on the neutral rate continue to anchor expectations, while upcoming June CPI revisions, July employment data, and the next FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift consensus on the core measure’s trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour≤2,2 % 49%
2,4 % 44%
2,5 % 44%
2,6 % 44%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
12 août 2026
≤2,2 %
49%
2,3 %
44%
2,4 %
44%
2,5 %
44%
2,6 %
44%
2,7 %
44%
2,8 %
44%
2,9 %
43%
3,0 %
43%
≥3,1 %
43%
≤2,2 % 49%
2,4 % 44%
2,5 % 44%
2,6 % 44%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
12 août 2026
≤2,2 %
$0 Vol.
49%
2,3 %
$0 Vol.
44%
2,4 %
$0 Vol.
44%
2,5 %
$0 Vol.
44%
2,6 %
$0 Vol.
44%
2,7 %
$0 Vol.
44%
2,8 %
$0 Vol.
44%
2,9 %
$0 Vol.
43%
3,0 %
$0 Vol.
43%
≥3,1 %
$0 Vol.
43%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader sentiment on the July 2026 Core CPI year-over-year reading shows evenly matched probabilities across outcome ranges, underscoring high uncertainty in the inflation path. Recent labor market softening and mixed signals from producer prices have offset persistent shelter costs and services inflation, keeping market-implied odds balanced near the 2.5–2.8% zone. The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot and communications on the neutral rate continue to anchor expectations, while upcoming June CPI revisions, July employment data, and the next FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift consensus on the core measure’s trajectory.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Jul 14, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 14, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader sentiment on the July 2026 Core CPI year-over-year reading shows evenly matched probabilities across outcome ranges, underscoring high uncertainty in the inflation path. Recent labor market softening and mixed signals from producer prices have offset persistent shelter costs and services inflation, keeping market-implied odds balanced near the 2.5–2.8% zone. The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot and communications on the neutral rate continue to anchor expectations, while upcoming June CPI revisions, July employment data, and the next FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift consensus on the core measure’s trajectory.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$0Date de fin
12 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 14, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on the July 2026 Core CPI year-over-year reading shows evenly matched probabilities across outcome ranges, underscoring high uncertainty in the inflation path. Recent labor market softening and mixed signals from producer prices have offset persistent shelter costs and services inflation, keeping market-implied odds balanced near the 2.5–2.8% zone. The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot and communications on the neutral rate continue to anchor expectations, while upcoming June CPI revisions, July employment data, and the next FOMC meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift consensus on the core measure’s trajectory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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