Recent May 2026 core CPI data printing at 2.9% year-over-year, in line with consensus and up from 2.8% in April, anchors trader positioning for the June reading amid closely matched implied probabilities around the 2.7–2.9% outcomes. Energy price surges from geopolitical tensions have elevated headline inflation to 4.2%, yet core measures excluding food and energy have held steady, reflecting persistent shelter and services pressures offset by softer goods categories. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a June core YoY rate near 2.85%, while analyst models anticipate modest deceleration to 2.8% by quarter-end as base effects and potential tariff pass-through introduce volatility. With the July 14 release approaching and the Federal Reserve maintaining a data-dependent stance on rates near 3.5–3.75%, markets price in balanced risks between further reacceleration and gradual cooling toward the 2% target.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2.5% 57%
2.7% 22%
2.8% 22%
≥3.3% 20.8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 juil. 2026
≤2.4%
11%
2.5%
57%
2.6%
6%
2.7%
22%
2.8%
45%
2.9%
13%
3.0%
10%
3.1%
16%
3.2%
8%
≥3.3%
21%
2.5% 57%
2.7% 22%
2.8% 22%
≥3.3% 20.8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 juil. 2026
≤2.4%
$71 Vol.
11%
2.5%
$311 Vol.
57%
2.6%
$292 Vol.
6%
2.7%
$65 Vol.
22%
2.8%
$26 Vol.
45%
2.9%
$7 Vol.
13%
3.0%
$54 Vol.
10%
3.1%
$80 Vol.
16%
3.2%
$145 Vol.
8%
≥3.3%
$138 Vol.
21%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 core CPI data printing at 2.9% year-over-year, in line with consensus and up from 2.8% in April, anchors trader positioning for the June reading amid closely matched implied probabilities around the 2.7–2.9% outcomes. Energy price surges from geopolitical tensions have elevated headline inflation to 4.2%, yet core measures excluding food and energy have held steady, reflecting persistent shelter and services pressures offset by softer goods categories. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a June core YoY rate near 2.85%, while analyst models anticipate modest deceleration to 2.8% by quarter-end as base effects and potential tariff pass-through introduce volatility. With the July 14 release approaching and the Federal Reserve maintaining a data-dependent stance on rates near 3.5–3.75%, markets price in balanced risks between further reacceleration and gradual cooling toward the 2% target.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Jun 10, 2026, 11:41 AM ET
Volume
$1,189Date de fin
15 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 10, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent May 2026 core CPI data printing at 2.9% year-over-year, in line with consensus and up from 2.8% in April, anchors trader positioning for the June reading amid closely matched implied probabilities around the 2.7–2.9% outcomes. Energy price surges from geopolitical tensions have elevated headline inflation to 4.2%, yet core measures excluding food and energy have held steady, reflecting persistent shelter and services pressures offset by softer goods categories. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a June core YoY rate near 2.85%, while analyst models anticipate modest deceleration to 2.8% by quarter-end as base effects and potential tariff pass-through introduce volatility. With the July 14 release approaching and the Federal Reserve maintaining a data-dependent stance on rates near 3.5–3.75%, markets price in balanced risks between further reacceleration and gradual cooling toward the 2% target.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$1,189Date de fin
15 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 10, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 core CPI data printing at 2.9% year-over-year, in line with consensus and up from 2.8% in April, anchors trader positioning for the June reading amid closely matched implied probabilities around the 2.7–2.9% outcomes. Energy price surges from geopolitical tensions have elevated headline inflation to 4.2%, yet core measures excluding food and energy have held steady, reflecting persistent shelter and services pressures offset by softer goods categories. Cleveland Fed nowcasts project a June core YoY rate near 2.85%, while analyst models anticipate modest deceleration to 2.8% by quarter-end as base effects and potential tariff pass-through introduce volatility. With the July 14 release approaching and the Federal Reserve maintaining a data-dependent stance on rates near 3.5–3.75%, markets price in balanced risks between further reacceleration and gradual cooling toward the 2% target.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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