Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service and model forecasts for Austin's May 16 high temperature, with implied odds favoring 90°F or higher at 41% amid a cluster around 88-91°F from GFS and ECMWF runs showing a building upper-level ridge over Texas promoting southerly flow and daytime heating. Recent wet pattern through early May has left elevated soil moisture, potentially capping highs via evaporative cooling, while patchy clouds and light precipitation chances (20-30%) differentiate outcomes—clearer skies could push toward 90°F+, but lingering boundary layer moisture favors 88-89°F. Watch NWS updates overnight for refined guidance, as small shifts in cloud cover or winds aloft could tip the balance before afternoon peak heating. Historical May averages near 88°F add climatological context to this close contest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Austin on May 16?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 16?
90°F or higher 42%
88-89°F 34%
86-87°F 21%
84-85°F 6%
NOUVEAU
$28,781 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$28,781 Vol.
16 mai 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
6%
86-87°F
21%
88-89°F
34%
90°F or higher
42%
90°F or higher 42%
88-89°F 34%
86-87°F 21%
84-85°F 6%
NOUVEAU
$28,781 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$28,781 Vol.
16 mai 2026
71°F or below
$9,296 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$6,686 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$2,677 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$2,809 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$1,682 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,415 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$563 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$460 Vol.
6%
86-87°F
$773 Vol.
21%
88-89°F
$795 Vol.
34%
90°F or higher
$1,625 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service and model forecasts for Austin's May 16 high temperature, with implied odds favoring 90°F or higher at 41% amid a cluster around 88-91°F from GFS and ECMWF runs showing a building upper-level ridge over Texas promoting southerly flow and daytime heating. Recent wet pattern through early May has left elevated soil moisture, potentially capping highs via evaporative cooling, while patchy clouds and light precipitation chances (20-30%) differentiate outcomes—clearer skies could push toward 90°F+, but lingering boundary layer moisture favors 88-89°F. Watch NWS updates overnight for refined guidance, as small shifts in cloud cover or winds aloft could tip the balance before afternoon peak heating. Historical May averages near 88°F add climatological context to this close contest.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 14, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volume
$28,781Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:19 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service and model forecasts for Austin's May 16 high temperature, with implied odds favoring 90°F or higher at 41% amid a cluster around 88-91°F from GFS and ECMWF runs showing a building upper-level ridge over Texas promoting southerly flow and daytime heating. Recent wet pattern through early May has left elevated soil moisture, potentially capping highs via evaporative cooling, while patchy clouds and light precipitation chances (20-30%) differentiate outcomes—clearer skies could push toward 90°F+, but lingering boundary layer moisture favors 88-89°F. Watch NWS updates overnight for refined guidance, as small shifts in cloud cover or winds aloft could tip the balance before afternoon peak heating. Historical May averages near 88°F add climatological context to this close contest.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,781Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:19 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service and model forecasts for Austin's May 16 high temperature, with implied odds favoring 90°F or higher at 41% amid a cluster around 88-91°F from GFS and ECMWF runs showing a building upper-level ridge over Texas promoting southerly flow and daytime heating. Recent wet pattern through early May has left elevated soil moisture, potentially capping highs via evaporative cooling, while patchy clouds and light precipitation chances (20-30%) differentiate outcomes—clearer skies could push toward 90°F+, but lingering boundary layer moisture favors 88-89°F. Watch NWS updates overnight for refined guidance, as small shifts in cloud cover or winds aloft could tip the balance before afternoon peak heating. Historical May averages near 88°F add climatological context to this close contest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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