Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 32°C in Lagos today, with 99.4% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), AccuWeather, and global models like ECMWF showing daytime highs peaking at 31–32°C amid persistent cloud cover and scattered thundery showers. Morning observations report temperatures around 28–29°C with high humidity (80–90%) and southwest winds, typical of the early wet season onset that limits solar insolation and convective heating. Historical May maxima average 31°C, aligning with current conditions of reduced insolation from overcast skies. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing for prolonged sunshine, boosting surface heating to 33°C+, or heavier rain cooling surfaces below 32°C; NiMet's evening update will refine this as the day progresses.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Lagos on May 15?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 15?
32°C 99.6%
33°C <1%
35°C <1%
36°C or higher <1%
$31,500 Vol.
$31,500 Vol.
32°C
100%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 99.6%
33°C <1%
35°C <1%
36°C or higher <1%
$31,500 Vol.
$31,500 Vol.
32°C
100%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 13, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 32°C in Lagos today, with 99.4% implied probability, driven by the latest forecasts from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), AccuWeather, and global models like ECMWF showing daytime highs peaking at 31–32°C amid persistent cloud cover and scattered thundery showers. Morning observations report temperatures around 28–29°C with high humidity (80–90%) and southwest winds, typical of the early wet season onset that limits solar insolation and convective heating. Historical May maxima average 31°C, aligning with current conditions of reduced insolation from overcast skies. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing for prolonged sunshine, boosting surface heating to 33°C+, or heavier rain cooling surfaces below 32°C; NiMet's evening update will refine this as the day progresses.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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