Latest National Weather Service model ensembles converge on a peak temperature of 85–88°F at LaGuardia Airport today, the official observation site for this market, under strong solar insolation and mostly clear skies driven by high pressure. Minor spreads among GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions arise from differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the exact timing of maximum heating, creating the tight contest between the 86–87°F and 88–89°F outcomes that together hold over 63% of market-implied probability. This reflects traders’ assessment of ensemble uncertainty rather than any single deterministic forecast, with resolution hinging on the precise hourly maximum recorded at the station.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à New York le 17 mai ?
86-87 °F 34%
88-89 °F 30%
84-85°F 21%
90-91°F 11.9%
$42,599 Vol.
$42,599 Vol.
79°F ou moins
<1%
80-81 °F
<1%
82-83 °F
4%
84-85°F
21%
86-87 °F
34%
88-89 °F
30%
90-91°F
12%
92-93 °F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F ou plus
<1%
86-87 °F 34%
88-89 °F 30%
84-85°F 21%
90-91°F 11.9%
$42,599 Vol.
$42,599 Vol.
79°F ou moins
<1%
80-81 °F
<1%
82-83 °F
4%
84-85°F
21%
86-87 °F
34%
88-89 °F
30%
90-91°F
12%
92-93 °F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F ou plus
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGALatest National Weather Service model ensembles converge on a peak temperature of 85–88°F at LaGuardia Airport today, the official observation site for this market, under strong solar insolation and mostly clear skies driven by high pressure. Minor spreads among GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions arise from differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the exact timing of maximum heating, creating the tight contest between the 86–87°F and 88–89°F outcomes that together hold over 63% of market-implied probability. This reflects traders’ assessment of ensemble uncertainty rather than any single deterministic forecast, with resolution hinging on the precise hourly maximum recorded at the station.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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