Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance position 70–73°F as the leading range for San Francisco’s August 7 high, driven by persistent onshore flow and a moderating marine layer that limits afternoon warming near the coast. Typical August climatology (average high near 69–70°F at KSFO) combined with current 500-hPa ridging that favors modest inland heating yet keeps the immediate Bay Area in the low-to-mid 70s supports the market’s concentration around these bins. Minor model spread on boundary-layer mixing and sea-breeze timing accounts for the secondary 68–69°F probability, while probabilities above 74°F remain low absent a stronger offshore component. Updated NWS short-range guidance and next model cycle will provide the next key data point before market resolution.