Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance has converged on a precise 24 °C daytime maximum for Seoul on May 16 under a stable high-pressure ridge that favors subsidence, clear skies, and only modest southerly warm-air advection. This setup aligns with the historical May climatology for the region, where typical highs range 22–24 °C, and current ensemble model consensus shows minimal spread around that value. The market’s 100 % implied probability for exactly 24 °C therefore reflects traders’ confidence in the official forecast and the absence of significant boundary-layer warming mechanisms. Only an unanticipated strengthening of the urban heat-island effect or a late revision in the final observational data could realistically shift the outcome toward 25 °C or higher before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Seoul on May 16?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 16?
24°C 100.0%
16°C ou moins <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$328,286 Vol.
$328,286 Vol.
16 mai 2026
16°C ou moins
Non
17°C
Non
18°C
No
19°C
Non
20°C
Non
21°C
Non
22°C
Non
23°C
Non
24°C
Oui
25°C
Non
26°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
16°C ou moins <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$328,286 Vol.
$328,286 Vol.
16 mai 2026
16°C ou moins
$105,933 Vol.
Non
17°C
$4,940 Vol.
Non
18°C
$1,747 Vol.
No
19°C
$8,166 Vol.
Non
20°C
$7,976 Vol.
Non
21°C
$16,986 Vol.
Non
22°C
$23,607 Vol.
Non
23°C
$28,971 Vol.
Non
24°C
$51,538 Vol.
Oui
25°C
$27,519 Vol.
Non
26°C or higher
$50,902 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance has converged on a precise 24 °C daytime maximum for Seoul on May 16 under a stable high-pressure ridge that favors subsidence, clear skies, and only modest southerly warm-air advection. This setup aligns with the historical May climatology for the region, where typical highs range 22–24 °C, and current ensemble model consensus shows minimal spread around that value. The market’s 100 % implied probability for exactly 24 °C therefore reflects traders’ confidence in the official forecast and the absence of significant boundary-layer warming mechanisms. Only an unanticipated strengthening of the urban heat-island effect or a late revision in the final observational data could realistically shift the outcome toward 25 °C or higher before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$328,286Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance has converged on a precise 24 °C daytime maximum for Seoul on May 16 under a stable high-pressure ridge that favors subsidence, clear skies, and only modest southerly warm-air advection. This setup aligns with the historical May climatology for the region, where typical highs range 22–24 °C, and current ensemble model consensus shows minimal spread around that value. The market’s 100 % implied probability for exactly 24 °C therefore reflects traders’ confidence in the official forecast and the absence of significant boundary-layer warming mechanisms. Only an unanticipated strengthening of the urban heat-island effect or a late revision in the final observational data could realistically shift the outcome toward 25 °C or higher before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$328,286Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance has converged on a precise 24 °C daytime maximum for Seoul on May 16 under a stable high-pressure ridge that favors subsidence, clear skies, and only modest southerly warm-air advection. This setup aligns with the historical May climatology for the region, where typical highs range 22–24 °C, and current ensemble model consensus shows minimal spread around that value. The market’s 100 % implied probability for exactly 24 °C therefore reflects traders’ confidence in the official forecast and the absence of significant boundary-layer warming mechanisms. Only an unanticipated strengthening of the urban heat-island effect or a late revision in the final observational data could realistically shift the outcome toward 25 °C or higher before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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