Trader consensus heavily favors the 100–129 bin for U.S. tornadoes in July 2026 because preliminary Storm Prediction Center data place the confirmed total at 111, near the 1991–2020 average of 119. July activity typically shifts northward with the jet stream into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, producing moderate but consistent severe-storm environments; this year’s pattern delivered typical numbers without major outbreaks or suppression. Official counts undergo final quality control, yet historical revisions rarely exceed a few percent, keeping the outcome well inside the current market range. An unusually large number of late reports reclassified as tornadoes or a major downward revision from duplicate filtering could theoretically shift the total, though both remain low-probability given current SPC verification.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tornades aux États-Unis en juillet ?
Combien de tornades aux États-Unis en juillet ?
100–129 100.0%
250–279 4.5%
<100 <1%
130–159 <1%
$6,110 Vol.
$6,110 Vol.
1 août 2026
<100
No
100–129
Yes
130–159
No
160–189
No
190–219
No
220–249
No
250–279
No
280–310
No
310+
No
100–129 100.0%
250–279 4.5%
<100 <1%
130–159 <1%
$6,110 Vol.
$6,110 Vol.
1 août 2026
<100
$890 Vol.
No
100–129
$827 Vol.
Yes
130–159
$684 Vol.
No
160–189
$551 Vol.
No
190–219
$515 Vol.
No
220–249
$546 Vol.
No
250–279
$810 Vol.
No
280–310
$650 Vol.
No
310+
$637 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors the 100–129 bin for U.S. tornadoes in July 2026 because preliminary Storm Prediction Center data place the confirmed total at 111, near the 1991–2020 average of 119. July activity typically shifts northward with the jet stream into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, producing moderate but consistent severe-storm environments; this year’s pattern delivered typical numbers without major outbreaks or suppression. Official counts undergo final quality control, yet historical revisions rarely exceed a few percent, keeping the outcome well inside the current market range. An unusually large number of late reports reclassified as tornadoes or a major downward revision from duplicate filtering could theoretically shift the total, though both remain low-probability given current SPC verification.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
Volume
$6,110Date de fin
1 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors the 100–129 bin for U.S. tornadoes in July 2026 because preliminary Storm Prediction Center data place the confirmed total at 111, near the 1991–2020 average of 119. July activity typically shifts northward with the jet stream into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, producing moderate but consistent severe-storm environments; this year’s pattern delivered typical numbers without major outbreaks or suppression. Official counts undergo final quality control, yet historical revisions rarely exceed a few percent, keeping the outcome well inside the current market range. An unusually large number of late reports reclassified as tornadoes or a major downward revision from duplicate filtering could theoretically shift the total, though both remain low-probability given current SPC verification.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$6,110Date de fin
1 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
Trader consensus heavily favors the 100–129 bin for U.S. tornadoes in July 2026 because preliminary Storm Prediction Center data place the confirmed total at 111, near the 1991–2020 average of 119. July activity typically shifts northward with the jet stream into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, producing moderate but consistent severe-storm environments; this year’s pattern delivered typical numbers without major outbreaks or suppression. Official counts undergo final quality control, yet historical revisions rarely exceed a few percent, keeping the outcome well inside the current market range. An unusually large number of late reports reclassified as tornadoes or a major downward revision from duplicate filtering could theoretically shift the total, though both remain low-probability given current SPC verification.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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