The Republican hold on Illinois’s 16th congressional district rests on its consistent partisan lean and the strength of incumbent Darin LaHood, who advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary. The Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Republican, reflecting voting patterns across its rural northern counties that have delivered large margins to GOP candidates in recent cycles. Democrat Paul Nolley is the only general-election opponent on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and no major polling or fundraising shifts have emerged to alter the district’s trajectory. Traders therefore assign the Republican Party an 87–88 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for this safely red seat.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-16
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-16
$12,709 Vol.
$12,709 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
88%
Parti démocrate
10%
$12,709 Vol.
$12,709 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$3,841 Vol.
88%
Parti démocrate
$8,868 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican hold on Illinois’s 16th congressional district rests on its consistent partisan lean and the strength of incumbent Darin LaHood, who advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary. The Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Republican, reflecting voting patterns across its rural northern counties that have delivered large margins to GOP candidates in recent cycles. Democrat Paul Nolley is the only general-election opponent on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and no major polling or fundraising shifts have emerged to alter the district’s trajectory. Traders therefore assign the Republican Party an 87–88 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for this safely red seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$12,709Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican hold on Illinois’s 16th congressional district rests on its consistent partisan lean and the strength of incumbent Darin LaHood, who advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary. The Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Republican, reflecting voting patterns across its rural northern counties that have delivered large margins to GOP candidates in recent cycles. Democrat Paul Nolley is the only general-election opponent on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and no major polling or fundraising shifts have emerged to alter the district’s trajectory. Traders therefore assign the Republican Party an 87–88 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for this safely red seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,709Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican hold on Illinois’s 16th congressional district rests on its consistent partisan lean and the strength of incumbent Darin LaHood, who advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary. The Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Republican, reflecting voting patterns across its rural northern counties that have delivered large margins to GOP candidates in recent cycles. Democrat Paul Nolley is the only general-election opponent on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and no major polling or fundraising shifts have emerged to alter the district’s trajectory. Traders therefore assign the Republican Party an 87–88 percent implied probability, consistent with historical base rates for this safely red seat.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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