Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing US-Israel war and economic blockade. Late April rumors of an IRGC power struggle—alleging house arrests of figures like Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian, plus thwarted US infiltration plots—fizzled without verifiable escalation, as officials including Ghalibaf publicly affirmed stability and failed external schemes. In recent weeks, focus has shifted to IRGC consolidation over the Strait of Hormuz, rejection of US negotiation proposals, and preparations against domestic unrest, with no fresh factional indicators. Sustained ceasefire efforts and institutional cohesion pose high barriers to any overt coup bid before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$1,115,267 Vol.
$1,115,267 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$1,115,267 Vol.
$1,115,267 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing US-Israel war and economic blockade. Late April rumors of an IRGC power struggle—alleging house arrests of figures like Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian, plus thwarted US infiltration plots—fizzled without verifiable escalation, as officials including Ghalibaf publicly affirmed stability and failed external schemes. In recent weeks, focus has shifted to IRGC consolidation over the Strait of Hormuz, rejection of US negotiation proposals, and preparations against domestic unrest, with no fresh factional indicators. Sustained ceasefire efforts and institutional cohesion pose high barriers to any overt coup bid before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,115,267Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing US-Israel war and economic blockade. Late April rumors of an IRGC power struggle—alleging house arrests of figures like Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian, plus thwarted US infiltration plots—fizzled without verifiable escalation, as officials including Ghalibaf publicly affirmed stability and failed external schemes. In recent weeks, focus has shifted to IRGC consolidation over the Strait of Hormuz, rejection of US negotiation proposals, and preparations against domestic unrest, with no fresh factional indicators. Sustained ceasefire efforts and institutional cohesion pose high barriers to any overt coup bid before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,115,267Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iran coup attempt by June 30, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing US-Israel war and economic blockade. Late April rumors of an IRGC power struggle—alleging house arrests of figures like Speaker Ghalibaf and President Pezeshkian, plus thwarted US infiltration plots—fizzled without verifiable escalation, as officials including Ghalibaf publicly affirmed stability and failed external schemes. In recent weeks, focus has shifted to IRGC consolidation over the Strait of Hormuz, rejection of US negotiation proposals, and preparations against domestic unrest, with no fresh factional indicators. Sustained ceasefire efforts and institutional cohesion pose high barriers to any overt coup bid before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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