Iran’s post-war political landscape features heightened internal factional tensions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and a subsequent ceasefire. Hardline lawmakers have publicly accused reformist figures and interim leaders of coup plotting amid succession disputes involving Mojtaba Khamenei, while protests, arrests, and localized violence continue in provinces like Sistan and Baluchistan. No widely reported coup attempt has materialized as of mid-August 2026, contributing to trader consensus reflected in low Yes odds. Key variables include further leadership consolidation, opposition coordination, or renewed external pressure before the December 31 resolution deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$2,119,957 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 décembre
11%
$2,119,957 Vol.
31 décembre
$78,731 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-war political landscape features heightened internal factional tensions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and a subsequent ceasefire. Hardline lawmakers have publicly accused reformist figures and interim leaders of coup plotting amid succession disputes involving Mojtaba Khamenei, while protests, arrests, and localized violence continue in provinces like Sistan and Baluchistan. No widely reported coup attempt has materialized as of mid-August 2026, contributing to trader consensus reflected in low Yes odds. Key variables include further leadership consolidation, opposition coordination, or renewed external pressure before the December 31 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,119,957Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-war political landscape features heightened internal factional tensions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and a subsequent ceasefire. Hardline lawmakers have publicly accused reformist figures and interim leaders of coup plotting amid succession disputes involving Mojtaba Khamenei, while protests, arrests, and localized violence continue in provinces like Sistan and Baluchistan. No widely reported coup attempt has materialized as of mid-August 2026, contributing to trader consensus reflected in low Yes odds. Key variables include further leadership consolidation, opposition coordination, or renewed external pressure before the December 31 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,119,957Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s post-war political landscape features heightened internal factional tensions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and a subsequent ceasefire. Hardline lawmakers have publicly accused reformist figures and interim leaders of coup plotting amid succession disputes involving Mojtaba Khamenei, while protests, arrests, and localized violence continue in provinces like Sistan and Baluchistan. No widely reported coup attempt has materialized as of mid-August 2026, contributing to trader consensus reflected in low Yes odds. Key variables include further leadership consolidation, opposition coordination, or renewed external pressure before the December 31 resolution deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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