**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models indicate a minimum temperature in Dallas on September 8, 2026, most likely in the low 80s°F (upper 70s to low 80s range), aligning with the market's leading 82-83°F outcome at 37.5% implied probability.** Persistent hot, humid conditions under a strong southerly flow and mostly clear skies are limiting overnight radiational cooling, keeping lows elevated well above the long-term September 8 average of ~73°F. Recent model runs show high consistency for this range, with daytime highs near 100–101°F and dew points supporting minimal temperature drops overnight. Traders are pricing in this consensus because short-range guidance (2 days out) has high skill, and no incoming frontal systems or significant moisture changes are expected to alter the pattern before resolution. Lower-probability bins reflect tail risks from minor forecast shifts or localized variations, while the clustered 24.5–25% outcomes around adjacent ranges capture remaining uncertainty in exact minimum timing and measurement.