**Forecast consensus for the overnight low in Los Angeles on August 22, 2026, centers on 67–70 °F, aligning with the market’s tightly clustered leading outcomes (66–67 °F at 27.5%, 68–69 °F at 29%, 70–71 °F at 28%).** Official guidance from the National Weather Service and private models shows a typical late-summer marine layer regime: overnight lows near 67–70 °F under patchy low clouds and fog, followed by clearing to sunny conditions with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. This range matches historical August averages (mean low ~65 °F) and recent observed lows of 67–70 °F. The primary drivers are the strength and persistence of the marine layer, which supplies moisture and clouds that limit radiational cooling, combined with light winds and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s °F. Minor forecast differences arise from model variations in cloud cover timing, boundary-layer mixing, and exact wind direction before sunrise—these small shifts can move the minimum by 1–3 °F across downtown, coastal, or valley stations. No unusual synoptic features (heat wave, cold advection, or strong offshore flow) are expected, keeping probabilities concentrated rather than skewed. Traders are effectively pricing the narrow uncertainty band in official model consensus, with outcomes below 66 °F or above 72 °F carrying low implied probability due to the absence of supporting atmospheric conditions. Updated NWS or model runs overnight will be the next key data points for any refinement.