Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a mild overnight period over the Northeast with southerly flow and partial cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, which underpins trader preference for the 66-67°F bin as the most likely minimum in New York City on May 18. Key variables shaping outcomes include boundary-layer moisture levels that could trap heat, sustained wind speeds preventing sharp drops, and any subtle frontal influences that might shift the low by a degree or two. Historical mid-May climatology shows typical overnight minima near 55°F, yet current conditions favor a warmer departure from that baseline. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs expected later today will clarify whether cloud trends or moisture advection strengthen the current consensus or open lower bins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à New York le 18 mai ?
La température la plus basse à New York le 18 mai ?
66-67°F 34%
64-65°F 21%
68-69°F 10.6%
62-63°F 2.9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 mai 2026
53°F ou moins
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
3%
64-65°F
21%
66-67°F
34%
68-69°F
16%
70-71°F
3%
72°F ou plus
2%
66-67°F 34%
64-65°F 21%
68-69°F 10.6%
62-63°F 2.9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 mai 2026
53°F ou moins
$2,067 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$70 Vol.
<1%
56-57°F
$108 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$102 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$480 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$405 Vol.
3%
64-65°F
$105 Vol.
21%
66-67°F
$334 Vol.
34%
68-69°F
$486 Vol.
16%
70-71°F
$498 Vol.
3%
72°F ou plus
$2,232 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a mild overnight period over the Northeast with southerly flow and partial cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, which underpins trader preference for the 66-67°F bin as the most likely minimum in New York City on May 18. Key variables shaping outcomes include boundary-layer moisture levels that could trap heat, sustained wind speeds preventing sharp drops, and any subtle frontal influences that might shift the low by a degree or two. Historical mid-May climatology shows typical overnight minima near 55°F, yet current conditions favor a warmer departure from that baseline. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs expected later today will clarify whether cloud trends or moisture advection strengthen the current consensus or open lower bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$6,887Date de fin
18 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a mild overnight period over the Northeast with southerly flow and partial cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, which underpins trader preference for the 66-67°F bin as the most likely minimum in New York City on May 18. Key variables shaping outcomes include boundary-layer moisture levels that could trap heat, sustained wind speeds preventing sharp drops, and any subtle frontal influences that might shift the low by a degree or two. Historical mid-May climatology shows typical overnight minima near 55°F, yet current conditions favor a warmer departure from that baseline. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs expected later today will clarify whether cloud trends or moisture advection strengthen the current consensus or open lower bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,887Date de fin
18 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGARecent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a mild overnight period over the Northeast with southerly flow and partial cloud cover limiting radiative cooling, which underpins trader preference for the 66-67°F bin as the most likely minimum in New York City on May 18. Key variables shaping outcomes include boundary-layer moisture levels that could trap heat, sustained wind speeds preventing sharp drops, and any subtle frontal influences that might shift the low by a degree or two. Historical mid-May climatology shows typical overnight minima near 55°F, yet current conditions favor a warmer departure from that baseline. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs expected later today will clarify whether cloud trends or moisture advection strengthen the current consensus or open lower bins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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