The overwhelming trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability for a 14°C low in Seoul on May 16 reflects converging short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble models, which settled on an overnight minimum of exactly 14°C. Mostly clear skies combined with light southerly winds enabled efficient radiative cooling and limited urban heat retention, aligning with mid-May climatological norms where official Seoul Central Observatory records typically show lows between 12°C and 16°C. Recent drier air following earlier precipitation further supported this trajectory. A significant last-minute model revision or localized microclimate shift remains the only realistic scenario that could move the outcome outside the narrow 14°C band before final resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Séoul le 16 mai ?
La température la plus basse à Séoul le 16 mai ?
14°C 99.8%
13°C ou moins <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$48,372 Vol.
$48,372 Vol.
16 mai 2026
13°C ou moins
Non
14°C
Oui
15°C
Non
16°C
Non
17°C
Non
18°C
Non
19°C
Non
20°C
Non
21°C
Non
22°C
Non
23°C ou plus
Non
14°C 99.8%
13°C ou moins <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$48,372 Vol.
$48,372 Vol.
16 mai 2026
13°C ou moins
$2,664 Vol.
Non
14°C
$5,169 Vol.
Oui
15°C
$19,720 Vol.
Non
16°C
$2,462 Vol.
Non
17°C
$2,520 Vol.
Non
18°C
$2,683 Vol.
Non
19°C
$3,988 Vol.
Non
20°C
$1,686 Vol.
Non
21°C
$1,464 Vol.
Non
22°C
$1,090 Vol.
Non
23°C ou plus
$4,928 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability for a 14°C low in Seoul on May 16 reflects converging short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble models, which settled on an overnight minimum of exactly 14°C. Mostly clear skies combined with light southerly winds enabled efficient radiative cooling and limited urban heat retention, aligning with mid-May climatological norms where official Seoul Central Observatory records typically show lows between 12°C and 16°C. Recent drier air following earlier precipitation further supported this trajectory. A significant last-minute model revision or localized microclimate shift remains the only realistic scenario that could move the outcome outside the narrow 14°C band before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$48,372Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability for a 14°C low in Seoul on May 16 reflects converging short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble models, which settled on an overnight minimum of exactly 14°C. Mostly clear skies combined with light southerly winds enabled efficient radiative cooling and limited urban heat retention, aligning with mid-May climatological norms where official Seoul Central Observatory records typically show lows between 12°C and 16°C. Recent drier air following earlier precipitation further supported this trajectory. A significant last-minute model revision or localized microclimate shift remains the only realistic scenario that could move the outcome outside the narrow 14°C band before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$48,372Date de fin
16 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThe overwhelming trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability for a 14°C low in Seoul on May 16 reflects converging short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble models, which settled on an overnight minimum of exactly 14°C. Mostly clear skies combined with light southerly winds enabled efficient radiative cooling and limited urban heat retention, aligning with mid-May climatological norms where official Seoul Central Observatory records typically show lows between 12°C and 16°C. Recent drier air following earlier precipitation further supported this trajectory. A significant last-minute model revision or localized microclimate shift remains the only realistic scenario that could move the outcome outside the narrow 14°C band before final resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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