This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 12, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between October 8, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing Russian military operations in Ukraine continue to constrain Moscow's capacity for direct conventional confrontation with NATO, as senior intelligence assessments note that full rebalancing of forces toward the alliance's eastern flank remains unlikely until hostilities there subside. NATO's recent large-scale exercises on Gotland tested rapid responses to hybrid incursions and sabotage below the Article 5 threshold, while U.S. officials have highlighted the risk of limited gray-zone pressure on Baltic states once Russian units reposition. Heightened transatlantic tensions over alliance burden-sharing have prompted concerns about deterrence credibility, though European allies have accelerated joint naval initiatives in the Baltic and Arctic to counter potential maritime escalation. These dynamics sustain trader focus on indirect risks rather than immediate open conflict through mid-2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between October 8, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between October 8, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Ongoing Russian military operations in Ukraine continue to constrain Moscow's capacity for direct conventional confrontation with NATO, as senior intelligence assessments note that full rebalancing of forces toward the alliance's eastern flank remains unlikely until hostilities there subside. NATO's recent large-scale exercises on Gotland tested rapid responses to hybrid incursions and sabotage below the Article 5 threshold, while U.S. officials have highlighted the risk of limited gray-zone pressure on Baltic states once Russian units reposition. Heightened transatlantic tensions over alliance burden-sharing have prompted concerns about deterrence credibility, though European allies have accelerated joint naval initiatives in the Baltic and Arctic to counter potential maritime escalation. These dynamics sustain trader focus on indirect risks rather than immediate open conflict through mid-2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
May 10 2026
Latvian Defense Minister resigns after drone airspace violations
Following drone incursions into Latvian airspace and strikes on oil facilities, the Latvian Defense Minister resigned amid criticism of defense sector leadership. This political fallout reflected the seriousness of airspace violations but did not constitute a direct military clash with Russia.
May 7 2026
Latvia reports Russian drones entering its airspace, one crashes near oil facility
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Incursions of Russian drones into a NATO member’s airspace heightened alert but, lacking direct combat, reinforced expectations that clashes would remain limited, sustaining low price levels.
May 7 2026
Russian drones enter Latvian airspace, one crashes near oil facility
December 31 drops to 16%5%
Several drones entered Latvian airspace from Russia, with one crashing near an oil storage facility. Latvian authorities did not shoot down the drones due to safety concerns. This incident heightened tensions but did not meet the market's criteria for a military clash involving use of force between NATO and Russia.
May 2 2026
NATO’s Allied Reaction Force conducts large‑scale exercise Steadfast Dart 2025
The successful large‑scale ARF exercise demonstrated NATO’s readiness without involving direct combat with Russia, reinforcing the view that a NATO‑Russia clash was unlikely and keeping market sentiment low.
Apr 24 2026
Polish Prime Minister questions US loyalty to NATO amid Russia tensions
December 31 dips to 21%1%
Polish PM Donald Tusk publicly questioned the United States' commitment to NATO defense obligations, reflecting alliance unease and concerns over readiness to respond to Russian aggression. This political uncertainty influenced market perceptions of NATO-Russia military clash risk.
Apr 22 2026
Germany unveils plan to build Europe’s strongest army amid Russian threat
December 31 rises to 22%2%
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced a comprehensive military strategy to enhance Germany's defensive capabilities and build Europe's strongest conventional army by 2039, citing Russia as the greatest immediate threat. This announcement reflected heightened NATO readiness but did not indicate imminent military conflict, contributing to market reassessment of clash likelihood.
Apr 20 2026
NATO launches Eastern Sentry to bolster eastern flank
December 31 rises to 14%3%
The activation of the Eastern Sentry vigilance activity signaled increased NATO readiness, reducing perceived risk of a direct NATO‑Russia clash and supporting the market’s decline.
Apr 11 2026
Czech President Petr Pavel warns Europe may need to shoot down Russian aircraft violating NATO airspace
Pavel’s warning that Europe might have to down Russian aircraft if violations continue heightened diplomatic pressure on Russia, lowering the perceived chance of a direct NATO‑Russia engagement.
Mar 8 2026
NATO launches Eastern Sentry to bolster vigilance on its eastern flank
The activation of Eastern Sentry, a multi‑domain activity enhancing NATO’s presence along the eastern border, signaled a defensive posture that reduced expectations of a direct NATO‑Russia clash, contributing to a price dip.
Mar 8 2026
Russia launches massive missile‑drone barrage ahead of UAE talks
December 31 rises to 11%3%
A record‑size Russian strike targeting Ukraine’s energy sector, timed before diplomatic talks, heightened regional tension but reinforced that NATO forces were not directly involved, keeping prices low.
Feb 10 2026
Ukrainian energy CEO warns NATO of Russian power‑grid attacks
December 31 dips to 8%2%
Maksym Timchenko’s warning about Russian strikes on energy infrastructure emphasized the broader threat but did not suggest a NATO‑Russia clash, contributing to the market’s bearish trend.
Feb 3 2026
NATO chief Mark Rutte confident allies will deliver $15 billion in US arms for Ukraine in 2026
Rutte’s statement that NATO allies will commit substantial arms to Ukraine suggested a continued focus on supporting Ukraine rather than escalating NATO‑Russia direct conflict, prompting another price decline.
Feb 3 2026
NATO chief Mark Rutte visits Kyiv as Russia launches massive winter strike
December 31 drops to 10%5%
Rutte’s visit underscored NATO solidarity while Russia’s large‑scale missile and drone barrage reinforced that direct NATO‑Russia combat remained unlikely, pushing prices lower.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 12, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between October 8, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing Russian military operations in Ukraine continue to constrain Moscow's capacity for direct conventional confrontation with NATO, as senior intelligence assessments note that full rebalancing of forces toward the alliance's eastern flank remains unlikely until hostilities there subside. NATO's recent large-scale exercises on Gotland tested rapid responses to hybrid incursions and sabotage below the Article 5 threshold, while U.S. officials have highlighted the risk of limited gray-zone pressure on Baltic states once Russian units reposition. Heightened transatlantic tensions over alliance burden-sharing have prompted concerns about deterrence credibility, though European allies have accelerated joint naval initiatives in the Baltic and Arctic to counter potential maritime escalation. These dynamics sustain trader focus on indirect risks rather than immediate open conflict through mid-2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between October 8, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between October 8, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Ongoing Russian military operations in Ukraine continue to constrain Moscow's capacity for direct conventional confrontation with NATO, as senior intelligence assessments note that full rebalancing of forces toward the alliance's eastern flank remains unlikely until hostilities there subside. NATO's recent large-scale exercises on Gotland tested rapid responses to hybrid incursions and sabotage below the Article 5 threshold, while U.S. officials have highlighted the risk of limited gray-zone pressure on Baltic states once Russian units reposition. Heightened transatlantic tensions over alliance burden-sharing have prompted concerns about deterrence credibility, though European allies have accelerated joint naval initiatives in the Baltic and Arctic to counter potential maritime escalation. These dynamics sustain trader focus on indirect risks rather than immediate open conflict through mid-2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
May 10 2026
Latvian Defense Minister resigns after drone airspace violations
Following drone incursions into Latvian airspace and strikes on oil facilities, the Latvian Defense Minister resigned amid criticism of defense sector leadership. This political fallout reflected the seriousness of airspace violations but did not constitute a direct military clash with Russia.
May 7 2026
Latvia reports Russian drones entering its airspace, one crashes near oil facility
December 31 rises to 17%3%
Incursions of Russian drones into a NATO member’s airspace heightened alert but, lacking direct combat, reinforced expectations that clashes would remain limited, sustaining low price levels.
May 7 2026
Russian drones enter Latvian airspace, one crashes near oil facility
December 31 drops to 16%5%
Several drones entered Latvian airspace from Russia, with one crashing near an oil storage facility. Latvian authorities did not shoot down the drones due to safety concerns. This incident heightened tensions but did not meet the market's criteria for a military clash involving use of force between NATO and Russia.
May 2 2026
NATO’s Allied Reaction Force conducts large‑scale exercise Steadfast Dart 2025
The successful large‑scale ARF exercise demonstrated NATO’s readiness without involving direct combat with Russia, reinforcing the view that a NATO‑Russia clash was unlikely and keeping market sentiment low.
Apr 24 2026
Polish Prime Minister questions US loyalty to NATO amid Russia tensions
December 31 dips to 21%1%
Polish PM Donald Tusk publicly questioned the United States' commitment to NATO defense obligations, reflecting alliance unease and concerns over readiness to respond to Russian aggression. This political uncertainty influenced market perceptions of NATO-Russia military clash risk.
Apr 22 2026
Germany unveils plan to build Europe’s strongest army amid Russian threat
December 31 rises to 22%2%
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced a comprehensive military strategy to enhance Germany's defensive capabilities and build Europe's strongest conventional army by 2039, citing Russia as the greatest immediate threat. This announcement reflected heightened NATO readiness but did not indicate imminent military conflict, contributing to market reassessment of clash likelihood.
Apr 20 2026
NATO launches Eastern Sentry to bolster eastern flank
December 31 rises to 14%3%
The activation of the Eastern Sentry vigilance activity signaled increased NATO readiness, reducing perceived risk of a direct NATO‑Russia clash and supporting the market’s decline.
Apr 11 2026
Czech President Petr Pavel warns Europe may need to shoot down Russian aircraft violating NATO airspace
Pavel’s warning that Europe might have to down Russian aircraft if violations continue heightened diplomatic pressure on Russia, lowering the perceived chance of a direct NATO‑Russia engagement.
Mar 8 2026
NATO launches Eastern Sentry to bolster vigilance on its eastern flank
The activation of Eastern Sentry, a multi‑domain activity enhancing NATO’s presence along the eastern border, signaled a defensive posture that reduced expectations of a direct NATO‑Russia clash, contributing to a price dip.
Mar 8 2026
Russia launches massive missile‑drone barrage ahead of UAE talks
December 31 rises to 11%3%
A record‑size Russian strike targeting Ukraine’s energy sector, timed before diplomatic talks, heightened regional tension but reinforced that NATO forces were not directly involved, keeping prices low.
Feb 10 2026
Ukrainian energy CEO warns NATO of Russian power‑grid attacks
December 31 dips to 8%2%
Maksym Timchenko’s warning about Russian strikes on energy infrastructure emphasized the broader threat but did not suggest a NATO‑Russia clash, contributing to the market’s bearish trend.
Feb 3 2026
NATO chief Mark Rutte confident allies will deliver $15 billion in US arms for Ukraine in 2026
Rutte’s statement that NATO allies will commit substantial arms to Ukraine suggested a continued focus on supporting Ukraine rather than escalating NATO‑Russia direct conflict, prompting another price decline.
Feb 3 2026
NATO chief Mark Rutte visits Kyiv as Russia launches massive winter strike
December 31 drops to 10%5%
Rutte’s visit underscored NATO solidarity while Russia’s large‑scale missile and drone barrage reinforced that direct NATO‑Russia combat remained unlikely, pushing prices lower.
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Questions fréquentes
« Conflit militaire OTAN x Russie par... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre » à 22%, suivi de « 30 juin » à 3%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 22¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 22% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.
À ce jour, « Conflit militaire OTAN x Russie par... ? » a généré $1.9 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Sep 23, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.
Pour trader sur « Conflit militaire OTAN x Russie par... ? », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.
Le favori actuel pour « Conflit militaire OTAN x Russie par... ? » est « 31 décembre » à 22%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 22% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 30 juin » à 3%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.
Les règles de résolution de « Conflit militaire OTAN x Russie par... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.
Oui. Vous n'avez pas besoin de trader pour rester informé. Cette page sert de suivi en direct pour « Conflit militaire OTAN x Russie par... ? ». Les probabilités des résultats sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que de nouvelles transactions arrivent. Vous pouvez ajouter cette page à vos favoris et consulter la section commentaires pour voir ce que disent les autres traders. Vous pouvez également utiliser les filtres de plage temporelle sur le graphique pour voir comment les cotes ont évolué au fil du temps.
Les cotes de Polymarket sont fixées par de vrais traders qui mettent de l'argent réel derrière leurs convictions, ce qui tend à produire des prédictions précises. Avec $1.9 million échangés sur « Conflit militaire OTAN x Russie par... ? », ces prix agrègent les connaissances collectives et la conviction de milliers de participants — surpassant souvent les sondages, les prévisions d’experts et les enquêtes traditionnelles. Les marchés de prédiction comme Polymarket ont un solide historique de précision, surtout à mesure que les événements approchent de leur date de résolution. Par exemple, Polymarket a un score de précision sur un mois de 94%. Pour les dernières statistiques sur la précision des prédictions de Polymarket, visitez la page de précision sur Polymarket.
Pour placer votre première transaction sur « Conflit militaire OTAN x Russie par... ? », inscrivez-vous pour un compte Polymarket gratuit et approvisionnez-le en utilisant des cryptomonnaies, une carte de crédit ou débit, ou un virement bancaire. Une fois votre compte approvisionné, revenez sur cette page, sélectionnez le résultat sur lequel vous souhaitez trader, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous êtes nouveau dans les marchés de prédiction, cliquez sur le lien « Comment ça marche » en haut de n'importe quelle page Polymarket pour un guide étape par étape.
Sur Polymarket, le prix de chaque résultat représente la probabilité implicite du marché. Un prix de 22¢ pour « 31 décembre » sur le marché « Conflit militaire OTAN x Russie par... ? » signifie que les traders estiment collectivement qu'il y a environ une probabilité de 22% que « 31 décembre » sera le résultat correct. Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » à 22¢ et que le résultat est correct, vous recevez $1,00 par part — un gain de 78¢ par part. S'il est incorrect, ces parts valent $0.
Le marché « Conflit militaire OTAN x Russie par... ? » est prévu pour être résolu autour du Dec 31, 2026. Cela signifie que le trading restera ouvert et les cotes continueront d'évoluer jusqu'à cette date. Le moment exact de la résolution dépend de la disponibilité du résultat officiel, comme décrit dans la section « Règles ».
Le marché « Conflit militaire OTAN x Russie par... ? » a une communauté active de 38 commentaires où les traders partagent leurs analyses, débattent des résultats et discutent des derniers développements. Faites défiler jusqu'à la section commentaires ci-dessous pour lire ce que pensent les autres participants. Vous pouvez également filtrer par « Principaux détenteurs » ou consulter l'onglet « Activité » pour un flux en temps réel des transactions.
Polymarket est le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde, où vous pouvez rester informé et profiter de vos connaissances sur les événements du monde réel. Les traders achètent et vendent des parts sur des résultats allant de la politique et des élections aux cryptomonnaies, finances, sports, technologie et culture, y compris des marchés comme « Conflit militaire OTAN x Russie par... ? ». Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel soutenues par une conviction financière, fournissant souvent des signaux plus rapides et plus précis que les sondages, les commentateurs ou les enquêtes traditionnelles.
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