Trader consensus reflects an 79.5% implied probability for "No," anchored by the U.S. government's unwavering non-recognition policy toward Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, underscored by President Trump's February 2026 extension of targeted sanctions beyond March 2026. Bipartisan congressional measures like S.1749 and H.R.1600, advanced in 2025, explicitly bar any formal acknowledgment of Russian sovereignty over Crimea or other seized Ukrainian territories, signaling strong legislative resistance. Early 2025 Trump administration peace frameworks floated de facto acceptance of Russian control as a Ukraine war concession, but Ukrainian and European rejections, coupled with stalled diplomatic talks, have prevented implementation. Absent major breakthroughs in ongoing negotiations or executive orders, traders anticipate policy continuity through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$28,158 Vol.
$28,158 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$28,158 Vol.
$28,158 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects an 79.5% implied probability for "No," anchored by the U.S. government's unwavering non-recognition policy toward Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, underscored by President Trump's February 2026 extension of targeted sanctions beyond March 2026. Bipartisan congressional measures like S.1749 and H.R.1600, advanced in 2025, explicitly bar any formal acknowledgment of Russian sovereignty over Crimea or other seized Ukrainian territories, signaling strong legislative resistance. Early 2025 Trump administration peace frameworks floated de facto acceptance of Russian control as a Ukraine war concession, but Ukrainian and European rejections, coupled with stalled diplomatic talks, have prevented implementation. Absent major breakthroughs in ongoing negotiations or executive orders, traders anticipate policy continuity through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ET
Volume
$28,158Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects an 79.5% implied probability for "No," anchored by the U.S. government's unwavering non-recognition policy toward Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, underscored by President Trump's February 2026 extension of targeted sanctions beyond March 2026. Bipartisan congressional measures like S.1749 and H.R.1600, advanced in 2025, explicitly bar any formal acknowledgment of Russian sovereignty over Crimea or other seized Ukrainian territories, signaling strong legislative resistance. Early 2025 Trump administration peace frameworks floated de facto acceptance of Russian control as a Ukraine war concession, but Ukrainian and European rejections, coupled with stalled diplomatic talks, have prevented implementation. Absent major breakthroughs in ongoing negotiations or executive orders, traders anticipate policy continuity through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,158Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 79.5% implied probability for "No," anchored by the U.S. government's unwavering non-recognition policy toward Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, underscored by President Trump's February 2026 extension of targeted sanctions beyond March 2026. Bipartisan congressional measures like S.1749 and H.R.1600, advanced in 2025, explicitly bar any formal acknowledgment of Russian sovereignty over Crimea or other seized Ukrainian territories, signaling strong legislative resistance. Early 2025 Trump administration peace frameworks floated de facto acceptance of Russian control as a Ukraine war concession, but Ukrainian and European rejections, coupled with stalled diplomatic talks, have prevented implementation. Absent major breakthroughs in ongoing negotiations or executive orders, traders anticipate policy continuity through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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